{"id":14235,"date":"2023-08-29T08:26:05","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T08:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/?p=14235"},"modified":"2025-03-07T10:09:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T09:09:21","slug":"steht-die-volatilitat-vor-einem-ausbruch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/steht-die-volatilitat-vor-einem-ausbruch\/","title":{"rendered":"Steht die Volatilit\u00e4t vor einem Ausbruch?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lieber Investor,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sie haben es vielleicht mitbekommen: Derzeit ist die implizite Volatilit\u00e4t, wie sie sich aus Optionspreisen am US-Aktienmarkt errechnet, relativ niedrig. Die Bank of America fand k\u00fcrzlich sogar heraus, dass es seit 2008 nie g\u00fcnstiger war, sich \u00fcber einen Zw\u00f6lfmonatszeitraum abzusichern.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die Frage, die sich Ihnen als Investor stellt: Ist jetzt eine Phase dauerhaft niedriger Schwankungsintensit\u00e4t erreicht, oder handelt es sich bei der derzeit niedrigen Volatilit\u00e4t lediglich um die Ruhe vor dem Sturm?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bei solchen Fragestellungen zur k\u00fcnftigen B\u00f6rsenentwicklung lohnt meist ein Blick in die B\u00f6rsengeschichte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00fcr die Analyse verwende ich eine der l\u00e4ngsten verf\u00fcgbaren Zeitreihen, die des Dow Jones Industrial Average, ab 1915. Das sind \u00fcber 100 Jahre B\u00f6rsengeschichte. Zur besseren Vergleichbarkeit entferne ich die Samstage, an denen in fr\u00fcheren Jahren noch ein Handel stattfand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ich berechne die historische Volatilit\u00e4t rollierend und \u00fcberlappend \u00fcber die jeweils vergangenen 21 Handelstage (etwa einen Kalendermonat). Diese Vorgehensweise bewirkt eine Gl\u00e4ttung.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die Volatilit\u00e4t im Jahresablauf<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Doch ist jetzt mit einem Anstieg der Volatilit\u00e4t zu rechnen? Betrachten wir dazu ihren jahreszeitlichen Ablauf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der n\u00e4chste Chart zeigt Ihnen den saisonalen Verlauf der 21-Tages-Volatilit\u00e4t des Dow Jones \u00fcber den gesamten Untersuchungszeitraum ab 1915. Ich trage die Volatilit\u00e4t dabei in der Mitte des 21-Tageszeitraums an, damit die Gl\u00e4ttung nicht zu einer zeitlichen Verschiebung f\u00fchrt. Die horizontale Achse weist den Zeitpunkt im Jahr aus, die vertikale Achse den Stand der mittleren Volatilit\u00e4t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So erkennen Sie auf einen Blick, wie Volatilit\u00e4t typischerweise saisonal verl\u00e4uft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatilit\u00e4t des Dow Jones, saisonaler Verlauf, 1915 bis 2023<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"Dow<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bis November nehmen die Schwankungen zu. <\/em>Quelle: Seasonax<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wie Sie sehen, gibt es trotz des sehr langen Erhebungszeitraums mit den sehr vielen Messpunkten eine ausgepr\u00e4gte Saisonalit\u00e4t der Volatilit\u00e4t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dabei liegt Ende Juli bis Anfang August eine regelrechte Sommerflaute mit Werten von im Mittel unter 14 Prozent vor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dann kommt es zu einem Anstieg, der Anfang November bei 18,3 Prozent endet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schwankungen nehmen saisonal zu!<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Derzeit schenken viele Anleger der Volatilit\u00e4t kaum Beachtung. Sie f\u00fchlen sich anscheinend sicher.   Angesichts des typischen saisonalen Verlaufs mit Spitzenwerten  bei den Schwankungen bis in den November hinein ist das vielleicht keine so gute Idee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Noch wird der jahreszeitliche Verlauf von Tradern im Volatilit\u00e4ts- wie auch Optionsmarkt kaum genutzt. Seien Sie hingegen Ihren Wettbewerbern voraus und nutzen Sie die Saisonalit\u00e4t bei allen Ihren Instrumenten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gehen Sie auf www.seasonax.com<\/a>! Dort finden Sie pr\u00e4zise saisonale Charts, Event-Studies und vieles mehr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herzliche Gr\u00fc\u00dfe,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dimitri Speck
Gr\u00fcnder und Head Analyst von Seasonax<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS: Ist derzeit die Ruhe vor dem Sturm?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Dimitri is a prolific writer, with one of the biggest stock market letters in Germany, along with several books. 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Die Bank of America fand k\u00fcrzlich sogar heraus, dass es seit 2008 nie g\u00fcnstiger war, sich \u00fcber einen Zw\u00f6lfmonatszeitraum abzusichern.","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14235"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14235\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20554,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14235\/revisions\/20554"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14235"},{"taxonomy":"post_folder","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_folder?post=14235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}