{"id":23054,"date":"2026-06-09T14:41:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T12:41:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/?p=23054"},"modified":"2026-06-09T14:41:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T12:41:58","slug":"halbleiter-vs-sp-500-wer-gewinnt-saisonal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/halbleiter-vs-sp-500-wer-gewinnt-saisonal\/","title":{"rendered":"Halbleiter vs. S&P 500: Wer gewinnt saisonal?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lieber Investor,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sie haben es wohl mitbekommen: Die Halbleiteraktien boomen. Der PHLX Semiconductor Index hat beim Verfassen dieser Zeilen binnen eines Jahres um 177,73 Prozent zugelegt.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der starke Anstieg zog viele Anleger an. Die Mittelzufl\u00fcsse in gehebelte Instrumente waren hoch, und in Korea verschuldeten sich vor allem Senioren f\u00fcr K\u00e4ufe der dortigen Halbleiteraktien.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Euphorie scheint sich einzustellen. Wir fragen uns, wie es jetzt weitergeht.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die Saisonalit\u00e4t gibt hierauf eine Antwort.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Das saisonale Rennen in den kommenden Monaten<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sehen Sie sich dazu den ersten Chart an. Er zeigt Ihnen den saisonalen Verlauf des PHLX Semiconductor Index in Blau. In goldener Farbe sehen Sie zum Vergleich den saisonalen Verlauf des S&P 500. Beide wurden \u00fcber die vergangenen 25 Jahre errechnet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Semiconductor-Index, S&P 500, saisonaler Verlauf \u00fcber 25 Jahre<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Saisonaler
Bis Anfang Oktober sind die Halbleiter saisonal schw\u00e4cher. Quelle: Seasonax<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Wie Sie klar sehen k\u00f6nnen, geht es mit den Halbleiteraktien in den kommenden vier Monaten aus saisonaler Perspektive bergab. Auch der breite Markt in Form des S&P 500 schneidet in dieser Zeit \u2013 es ist der schwache Sommer \u2013 nicht so gut ab. Sein saisonaler Verlauf ist aber deutlich besser als der des Halbleiter-Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ohne Extrem-Phase noch st\u00e4rkerer saisonaler Abw\u00e4rtstrend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bedenken Sie zudem: In obigen saisonalen Chart geht auch die j\u00fcngste extreme Hausse des Halbleiter-Index ein. Wenn eine Phase wie 2025\/26 beim Haclbleiter-Index sehr stark ist, hebt es entsprechend auch den saisonalen Mittelwert an.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deshalb stellt sich die Frage, wie der saisonale Verlauf des Halbleiter-Index ohne diese Extremphase aussieht. Der n\u00e4chste Chart zeigt Ihnen daher den saisonalen Verlauf des PHLX Semiconductor Index erneut ab 2001, diesmal aber ohne die Jahre 2025 und 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Semiconductor-Index, saisonaler Verlauf ohne 2025\/26<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Saisonaler
Die Schw\u00e4che ist sehr ausgepr\u00e4gt. Quelle: Seasonax<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sie sehen jetzt, wie schwach der saisonale Verlauf gerade des Halbleiterindex in den kommenden Sommermonaten ist. Der saisonale Verlauf bis Ende September ist ohne den Einfluss des j\u00fcngsten Extremanstiegs schon richtig schwach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die saisonale Perspektive bei Halbleiteraktien ist negativ<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Wie es jetzt in den kommenden Monaten mit den Halbleiteraktien weitergeht? Das kann Ihnen niemand mit Gewissheit sagen \u2013 die Zukunft ist offen. Aus saisonaler Perspektive aber ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit f\u00fcr R\u00fcckg\u00e4nge in den kommenden Monaten gerade f\u00fcr Halbleiteraktien stark erh\u00f6ht.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herzliche Gr\u00fc\u00dfe,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dimitri Speck
<\/strong>Gr\u00fcnder und Chef-Analytiker von Seasonax<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS: Nutzen Sie die Filter- und Vergleichsfunktionen von Seasonax!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Der PHLX Semiconductor Index legte binnen eines Jahres um 177,73 % zu. Doch wie geht es saisonal weiter? Ein Blick auf die Daten zeigt: Die kommenden Monate k\u00f6nnten schwierig werden.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23068,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uagb_previous_block_counts":["a:90:{s:21:\"uagb\/advanced-heading\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/blockquote\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/buttons\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/buttons-child\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/call-to-action\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/cf7-styler\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/column\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/columns\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/container\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/content-timeline\";i:0;s:27:\"uagb\/content-timeline-child\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/countdown\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/counter\";i:0;s:8:\"uagb\/faq\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/faq-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/forms\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-accept\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-checkbox\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-date\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-email\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-hidden\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-name\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-phone\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-radio\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-select\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-textarea\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-toggle\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/forms-url\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/gf-styler\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/google-map\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/how-to\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/how-to-step\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/icon\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/icon-list\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/icon-list-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/image\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/image-gallery\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/info-box\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/inline-notice\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/lottie\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/marketing-button\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/modal\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/popup-builder\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/post-button\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-carousel\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-excerpt\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-grid\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-image\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-masonry\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-meta\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-taxonomy\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-timeline\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-title\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu\";i:0;s:26:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu-child\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/review\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/section\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/separator\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/slider\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/slider-child\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/social-share\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/social-share-child\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/star-rating\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/sure-cart-checkout\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/sure-cart-product\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/sure-forms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/table-of-contents\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/tabs\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/tabs-child\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/taxonomy-list\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/team\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/testimonial\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/wp-search\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/instagram-feed\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/login\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-builder\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/loop-category\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/loop-pagination\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/loop-reset\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/loop-search\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/loop-sort\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-wrapper\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/register\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-email\";i:0;s:24:\"uagb\/register-first-name\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/register-last-name\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-password\";i:0;s:30:\"uagb\/register-reenter-password\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-terms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-username\";i:0;}"],"_edit_lock":["1781009165:19"],"_wpml_word_count":["481"],"stackable_optimized_css":[""],"stackable_optimized_css_raw":["a:0:{}"],"_wpml_location_migration_done":["1"],"_edit_last":["19"],"seasonax_select":["-"],"_pys_head_footer":["a:7:{s:14:\"disable_global\";b:0;s:8:\"head_any\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"head_desktop\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"head_mobile\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"footer_any\";s:0:\"\";s:14:\"footer_desktop\";s:0:\"\";s:13:\"footer_mobile\";s:0:\"\";}"],"_wpml_media_duplicate":["1"],"_wpml_media_featured":["1"],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":[""],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_post_folder":[""],"_yoast_wpseo_content_score":["60"],"_yoast_wpseo_focuskeywords":["[{\"keyword\":\"Halbleiter 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vs. S&P 500: Wer gewinnt saisonal? - seasonax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Der PHLX Semiconductor Index stieg um 177,73 % in einem Jahr. Doch saisonal droht Schw\u00e4che bis Oktober. Sehen Sie, was 25 Jahre Daten zeigen.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/de\/halbleiter-vs-sp-500-wer-gewinnt-saisonal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Halbleiter vs. S&P 500: Wer gewinnt saisonal?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Der PHLX Semiconductor Index stieg um 177,73 % in einem Jahr. Doch saisonal droht Schw\u00e4che bis Oktober. 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