{"id":23617,"date":"2021-07-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-13T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/leffet-halloween-le-niveau-de-risque-lie-a-un-investissement-en-actions-a-partir-du-mois-de-mai\/"},"modified":"2026-08-13T14:06:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T12:06:58","slug":"leffet-halloween-le-niveau-de-risque-lie-a-un-investissement-en-actions-a-partir-du-mois-de-mai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/fr\/leffet-halloween-le-niveau-de-risque-lie-a-un-investissement-en-actions-a-partir-du-mois-de-mai\/","title":{"rendered":"L’effet Halloween : le niveau de risque li\u00e9 \u00e0 un investissement en actions \u00e0 partir du mois de mai"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Article en allemand<\/a><\/p>\n\n

Cher investisseur,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Vous vous demandez peut-\u00eatre s’il est possible de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s en s’appuyant sur la saisonnalit\u00e9. Il s’agit apr\u00e8s tout d’une m\u00e9thode assez simple \u2013 du moins \u00e0 premi\u00e8re vue. Des milliers d’analystes et de programmes informatiques effectuent en permanence des recherches pour identifier des op\u00e9rations boursi\u00e8res rentables. Compte tenu de ces efforts, est-il r\u00e9ellement possible de surperformer le march\u00e9 \u00e0 l’aide d’un syst\u00e8me bas\u00e9 sur le calendrier ? <\/p>\n\n

Je souhaite donc aujourd’hui vous pr\u00e9senter un exemple simple qui met en \u00e9vidence \u00e0 quel point les motifs saisonniers peuvent \u00eatre stables : il s’agit notamment de \u00ab l’effet Halloween \u00bb.<\/p>\n\n

L’effet Halloween classique fonctionne depuis des ann\u00e9es<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Vous connaissez sans doute l’adage \u00ab Sell in May and go away ! \u00bb. Il s’agit probablement de l’adage boursier le plus connu en mati\u00e8re de saisonnalit\u00e9 ; en effet, il pourrait bien \u00eatre l’un des plus anciens adages boursiers qui existent. Il fait r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 ce que l’on appelle \u00e9galement \u00ab l’effet Halloween \u00bb. <\/p>\n\n

Le graphique ci-dessous illustre les gains que vous auriez pu accumuler en suivant cette r\u00e8gle depuis 1960. La ligne bleue repr\u00e9sente le rendement cumul\u00e9 en pourcentage qu’un investissement dans l’indice Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)<\/a> aurait g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 de novembre \u00e0 avril<\/a>, c’est-\u00e0-dire si cette r\u00e8gle avait \u00e9t\u00e9 respect\u00e9e. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, la ligne rouge indique les rendements cumul\u00e9s d’un investissement dans le DJIA pendant les mois d’\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n

\"rendements<\/figure>\n\n

La quasi-totalit\u00e9 des gains du DJIA a \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9e pendant les mois d’hiver. Source : Seasonax <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n

La quasi-totalit\u00e9 des performances enregistr\u00e9es au cours des soixante ann\u00e9es consid\u00e9r\u00e9es a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e pendant la p\u00e9riode de l’ann\u00e9e caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par une forte activit\u00e9 saisonni\u00e8re. En revanche, pendant les mois marqu\u00e9s par une faible activit\u00e9 saisonni\u00e8re, vous auriez tout aussi bien pu rester totalement en dehors du March\u00e9. <\/p>\n\n

\u00ab Sell in May \u00bb : cela sonne juste<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Il appara\u00eet clairement qu’une relation saisonni\u00e8re peut effectivement rester stable pendant tr\u00e8s longtemps. Bien s\u00fbr, certaines ann\u00e9es font figure d’exception et, qui plus est, les motifs saisonniers peuvent \u00e9voluer. <\/p>\n\n

Cependant, aucune corr\u00e9lation sur les march\u00e9s boursiers n’est valable en toutes circonstances. En fin de compte, il faut se fonder sur des probabilit\u00e9s \u2014 et, dans ce contexte, la saisonnalit\u00e9 joue un r\u00f4le important. <\/p>\n\n

Soit dit en passant, l’adage \u00ab Sell in May and go away ! \u00bb est connu depuis au moins les ann\u00e9es 1930 et date donc en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de plusieurs d\u00e9cennies. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne reste n\u00e9anmoins d’actualit\u00e9 aujourd’hui encore, malgr\u00e9 tous ces analystes tr\u00e8s actifs et ces programmes informatiques. Il s’applique \u00e9galement \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle internationale, comme l’illustre l’exemple suivant. <\/p>\n\n

L’\u00ab effet Halloween \u00bb s’applique-t-il \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle mondiale ?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Comme indiqu\u00e9 ci-dessus, les motifs saisonniers peuvent \u00e9voluer au fil des ann\u00e9es. Il est donc essentiel de proc\u00e9der \u00e0 une analyse pr\u00e9cise. <\/p>\n\n

Le graphique suivant pr\u00e9sente le motif saisonnier annuel de l’indice boursier MSCI World. Il ne s’agit pas d’un graphique de cours classique, mais d’un graphique saisonnier illustrant la performance moyenne de l’indice MSCI World au cours d’une ann\u00e9e. L’axe horizontal indique la p\u00e9riode de l’ann\u00e9e, tandis que l’axe vertical repr\u00e9sente les variations moyennes en pourcentage observ\u00e9es au cours des 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Les tendances saisonni\u00e8res de l’indice sont ainsi visibles d’un seul coup d’\u0153il. <\/p>\n\n

\"motif<\/figure>\n\n

La phase baissi\u00e8re des actions commence pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment d\u00e9but mai. Source : Seasonax <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Comme le montre le graphique, l’indice MSCI World entame une tendance baissi\u00e8re presque exactement d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but du mois de mai. La phase de faiblesse \u00e0 laquelle fait r\u00e9f\u00e9rence l’adage \u00ab Sell in May and go away \u00bb (Vendez en mai et partez) fait suite \u00e0 ce retournement. Elle prend fin au bout de pr\u00e8s de (mais pas tout \u00e0 fait) six mois. D’un point de vue saisonnier, la probabilit\u00e9 d’une faiblesse des march\u00e9s boursiers est donc \u00e9lev\u00e9e au cours des prochains mois. <\/p>\n\n

Le dicton \u00ab Sell in May \u00bb s’applique \u00e9galement \u00e0 l’indice allemand DAX<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Qu’en est-il alors des indices boursiers non am\u00e9ricains, tels que le DAX allemand ? Au cours des 61 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, le DAX a recul\u00e9 en moyenne de 0,67 % au cours du semestre estival, entre le 1er mai et le 31 octobre. Toutefois, globalement, le DAX a progress\u00e9 en moyenne de pr\u00e8s de 6 % par an au cours des 61 ann\u00e9es consid\u00e9r\u00e9es ; en moyenne, les gains enregistr\u00e9s par les actions allemandes l\u2019ont donc \u00e9t\u00e9 exclusivement au cours du semestre d\u2019hiver. <\/p>\n\n

Le graphique \u00e0 barres ci-dessous pr\u00e9sente les rendements de l’indice DAX entre le 1er mai et le 31 octobre pour chaque ann\u00e9e, de 1960 \u00e0 2020. Les barres vertes repr\u00e9sentent les ann\u00e9es au cours desquelles les cours ont augment\u00e9, tandis que les barres rouges indiquent les ann\u00e9es au cours desquelles les cours ont baiss\u00e9. <\/p>\n\n

DAX : rendements en pourcentage entre le 1er mai et le 31 octobre de chaque ann\u00e9e depuis 1960 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\"Rendements<\/figure>\n\n

Des pertes pouvant atteindre 36,5 % ont \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9es ! Source : Seasonax <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n

De toute \u00e9vidence, la couleur rouge n’est pas dominante. Le DAX a recul\u00e9 au cours de sa phase de faiblesse saisonni\u00e8re dans seulement 28 des 61 cas examin\u00e9s. Les baisses au cours du semestre estival ne sont pas plus fr\u00e9quentes que les hausses, mais elles sont globalement plus marqu\u00e9es. <\/p>\n\n

La p\u00e9riode de faiblesse li\u00e9e au dicton \u00ab Sell-in-May \u00bb est sur le point de commencer \u2013 Restez sur vos gardes !<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

La phase saisonni\u00e8re de faiblesse des march\u00e9s boursiers est sur le point de d\u00e9buter ; la plus grande prudence s’impose donc. Cette phase de faiblesse commence plus t\u00f4t pour certains indices et plus tard pour d’autres ; vous pouvez consulter ces informations sur www.seasonax.com. <\/p>\n\n

Au niveau des actions individuelles, la situation s’av\u00e8re plus nuanc\u00e9e. Certaines actions connaissent en effet des phases saisonni\u00e8res de faiblesse \u00e0 des moments de l’ann\u00e9e totalement diff\u00e9rents. <\/p>\n\n

Conclusion : il est globalement plus risqu\u00e9 de d\u00e9tenir des actions \u00e0 partir de d\u00e9but mai qu’\u00e0 partir de d\u00e9but novembre. Toutefois, de nombreuses actions individuelles pr\u00e9sentent des motifs saisonniers diff\u00e9rents ; beaucoup d’entre elles offrent en effet d’excellentes opportunit\u00e9s \u00e0 partir du mois de mai \u00e9galement. <\/p>\n\n

Cordialement,Dimitri SpeckFondateur et analyste en chef de Seasonax<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

P.S. : Le principe \u00ab Sell in May \u00bb s’applique \u00e0 de nombreuses actions, mais pas \u00e0 toutes !<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Article en allemand Cher investisseur, Vous vous demandez peut-\u00eatre s’il est possible de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s en s’appuyant sur la saisonnalit\u00e9. Il s’agit apr\u00e8s tout d’une m\u00e9thode assez simple \u2013 du moins \u00e0 premi\u00e8re vue. Des milliers d’analystes et de programmes informatiques effectuent en permanence des recherches pour identifier des op\u00e9rations boursi\u00e8res rentables. Compte 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