{"id":24038,"date":"2026-09-15T11:48:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T09:48:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/?p=24038"},"modified":"2026-09-15T11:48:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T09:48:03","slug":"quand-commence-le-rallye-de-fin-dannee-dax-sp500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/fr\/quand-commence-le-rallye-de-fin-dannee-dax-sp500\/","title":{"rendered":"Quand commence vraiment le rallye de fin d’ann\u00e9e ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cher investisseur,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vous \u00eates-vous d\u00e9j\u00e0 demand\u00e9 pourquoi la \u00ab rallye de fin d’ann\u00e9e \u00bb n’appara\u00eet dans les m\u00e9dias qu’une fois que la plus grande partie de la performance est d\u00e9j\u00e0 derri\u00e8re nous ? Les experts et les soi-disant sp\u00e9cialistes se succ\u00e8dent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement d\u00e9but d\u00e9cembre dans les studios de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision pour donner leur avis sur les quelques derniers jours de cotation de l’ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais si l\u2019on examine les statistiques, ce que Seasonax permet de faire tr\u00e8s facilement, on constate que le rallye de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e est, pour l\u2019essentiel, d\u00e9j\u00e0 termin\u00e9 depuis longtemps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans cet article, nous souhaitons vous pr\u00e9senter quelques \u00e9volutions de march\u00e9 tr\u00e8s typiques dont vous pouvez tirer profit imm\u00e9diatement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peut-\u00eatre que la rallye de fin d’ann\u00e9e commence d\u00e9j\u00e0 avec l’apparition des premiers pains d’\u00e9pices dans les rayons<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On a r\u00e9cemment entendu dire que les premiers pains d’\u00e9pices de No\u00ebl avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait leur apparition dans les rayons, et ce d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but du mois de septembre. On peut certes d\u00e9guster ces p\u00e2tisseries sucr\u00e9es tout au long de l’ann\u00e9e, m\u00eame si leur valeur nutritionnelle laisse certainement \u00e0 d\u00e9sirer. Un coup d\u2019\u0153il au graphique saisonnier du DAX montre que le fameux rallye de fin d’ann\u00e9e commence d\u00e8s la fin septembre. C\u2019est en tout cas ce qui s\u2019est produit \u00e0 45 reprises au cours des 66 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Au cours de ces 45 ann\u00e9es, un rendement moyen de 9 % a \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9. Ce n\u2019est que 21 fois qu\u2019une perte moyenne d\u2019un peu plus de 7 % a \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Le
Tendance saisonni\u00e8re du DAX sur 66 ans : la rallye de fin d’ann\u00e9e commence souvent d\u00e8s la fin septembre. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Lorsque, d\u00e9but d\u00e9cembre, les experts prennent la parole devant les micros, la d\u00e9ception ne tarde g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas \u00e0 se faire sentir et l’on assiste, tous les 40 ans, \u00e0 une baisse, certes br\u00e8ve, mais qui atteint tout de m\u00eame un peu plus de 2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les statistiques s’av\u00e8rent tout aussi int\u00e9ressantes lorsqu’il s’agit, comme cette ann\u00e9e en Allemagne, d’une ann\u00e9e d’\u00e9lections partielles. Dans ce cas, on observe m\u00eame un gain moyen de 11 % au cours de 11 des 17 ann\u00e9es d’\u00e9lections partielles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"L'\u00e9volution
Lors des ann\u00e9es d’\u00e9lections partielles, comme en 2026, la remont\u00e9e de fin d’ann\u00e9e s’av\u00e8re historiquement encore plus marqu\u00e9e. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La d\u00e9ception des experts de d\u00e9cembre devrait \u00eatre encore plus grande lors des ann\u00e9es de r\u00e9\u00e9lection, car la chute est encore plus marqu\u00e9e, passant de 5 \u00e0 12 % et de 2 % \u00e0 3 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les \u00c9tats-Unis c\u00e9l\u00e8brent eux aussi l’ann\u00e9e \u00e0 partir du mois d’octobre<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

M\u00eame si le S&P 500 a parfois connu des revers en octobre, on observe \u00e9galement outre-Atlantique une tendance haussi\u00e8re significative jusqu’\u00e0 la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Sur 98 ann\u00e9es, 73 se sont sold\u00e9es par une hausse moyenne de pr\u00e8s de 7 % pour ceux qui avaient investi \u00e0 partir du 1er octobre. Au cours des 25 ann\u00e9es n\u00e9gatives, on a certes perdu pr\u00e8s de 10 % en moyenne, mais la plupart des ann\u00e9es particuli\u00e8rement mauvaises remontent \u00e0 tr\u00e8s longtemps ; c\u2019est pourquoi une statistique corrig\u00e9e s\u2019av\u00e9rera nettement meilleure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Un
Le S&P 500 affiche lui aussi, depuis 1928, un net rebond de fin d’ann\u00e9e \u00e0 partir du mois d’octobre. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Voir le graphique<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Les ann\u00e9es d’\u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis ne sont pas seulement passionnantes sur le plan politique<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain actuel vient tout juste d’annoncer le coup d’envoi de la campagne \u00e9lectorale pour les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat. Cette campagne s’annonce passionnante, car elle ne portera pas seulement sur les si\u00e8ges de la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants et d’une partie du S\u00e9nat, mais aussi, \u00e0 un niveau tr\u00e8s personnel, sur la personne du pr\u00e9sident lui-m\u00eame. En effet, si les choses tournent mal, il pourrait devenir ce qu\u2019on appelle un \u00ab canard boiteux \u00bb, ce qui signifie qu\u2019il perdrait consid\u00e9rablement de son pouvoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il semble que ces \u00e9lections soient \u00e9galement suivies de tr\u00e8s pr\u00e8s par la Bourse. Quelle que soit l’issue du scrutin, la p\u00e9riode \u00e0 compter du 1er octobre rev\u00eatira une importance encore plus grande que celle de toutes les autres ann\u00e9es r\u00e9unies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En effet, au cours de 20 des 24 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es d’\u00e9lections de mi-mandat, un gain moyen d’un peu plus de 8 % a pu \u00eatre enregistr\u00e9 d’ici la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Au cours des quatre ann\u00e9es pour lesquelles les statistiques font \u00e9tat d\u2019une perte, celle-ci s\u2019est \u00e9lev\u00e9e en moyenne \u00e0 un peu plus de 10 % ; toutefois, la pire de ces quatre ann\u00e9es remonte \u00e0 1930, raison pour laquelle on peut sans autre l\u2019ignorer. Si l\u2019on exclut cette ann\u00e9e-l\u00e0, la perte moyenne n\u2019est plus que d\u2019un peu plus de 7 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"L'analyse
Au cours de 20 des 24 ann\u00e9es d’\u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis, l’indice S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 entre octobre et la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Voir le graphique<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Il semble donc que l’automne s’annonce mouvement\u00e9, \u00e0 tous les \u00e9gards<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019automne s\u2019annonce donc particuli\u00e8rement int\u00e9ressant sur le plan politique, mais surtout en bourse, cette ann\u00e9e en particulier. Toutefois, ceux qui pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent les op\u00e9rations \u00e0 court terme et ne souhaitent rester investis que quelques jours pourraient choisir une p\u00e9riode bien particuli\u00e8re du rallye de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e. En effet, le \u00ab rallye de No\u00ebl \u00bb n\u2019est pas \u00e0 n\u00e9gliger non plus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les graphiques d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements de Seasonax permettent de les identifier. On y constate d’excellentes statistiques couvrant la p\u00e9riode allant de 6 jours avant No\u00ebl \u00e0 5 jours apr\u00e8s No\u00ebl. Au cours des 62 ann\u00e9es les plus fructueuses, un gain de 2,3 % a pu \u00eatre r\u00e9alis\u00e9 au cours de ces quelques jours, tandis que lors des 14 ann\u00e9es n\u00e9gatives, la perte s’est limit\u00e9e \u00e0 1,5 %. Un rapport de probabilit\u00e9 que l’on ne rencontre pas souvent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Le
Le \u00ab rallye de No\u00ebl \u00bb : au cours de 62 des 76 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, le S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 aux alentours de No\u00ebl. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Voir le \u00ab rallye de No\u00ebl \u00bb<\/a> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion : attendre les \u00ab experts \u00bb des m\u00e9dias n\u2019est pas une option<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9tudi\u00e9 les graphiques Seasonax, il appara\u00eet clairement qu\u2019il ne vaut pas la peine d\u2019attendre que les m\u00e9dias se saisissent du rallye de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e. Agissez sans tarder et assurez-vous de profiter des rendements que la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, et en particulier les cycles \u00e9lectoraux, ont \u00e0 offrir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cela vous permettra peut-\u00eatre de financer d\u00e8s maintenant des cadeaux de No\u00ebl un peu plus g\u00e9n\u00e9reux que pr\u00e9vu. Ou bien vous pouvez tout simplement utiliser une partie de vos b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pour faire une bonne action et venir en aide \u00e0 ceux qui en ont besoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonax vous souhaite beaucoup de succ\u00e8s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Profitez de ces avantages et faites appel \u00e0<\/strong> de Seasonax<\/em> pour g\u00e9rer de mani\u00e8re professionnelle les fluctuations saisonni\u00e8res !<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cordialement,

Christoph Geyer, CFTe<\/strong>
Laur\u00e9at du prix \u00ab AktienAnalystenAward \u00bb dans la cat\u00e9gorie Analyse technique<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La rallye de fin d’ann\u00e9e commence souvent plus t\u00f4t que ne le rapportent les m\u00e9dias. Un examen des donn\u00e9es du DAX sur 66 ans et celles du S&P 500 sur 98 ans permet de voir \u00e0 quel moment les opportunit\u00e9s se multiplient r\u00e9ellement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":24058,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uagb_previous_block_counts":["a:90:{s:21:\"uagb\/advanced-heading\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/blockquote\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/buttons\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/buttons-child\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/call-to-action\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/cf7-styler\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/column\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/columns\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/container\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/content-timeline\";i:0;s:27:\"uagb\/content-timeline-child\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/countdown\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/counter\";i:0;s:8:\"uagb\/faq\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/faq-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/forms\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-accept\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-checkbox\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-date\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-email\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-hidden\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-name\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-phone\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-radio\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-select\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-textarea\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-toggle\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/forms-url\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/gf-styler\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/google-map\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/how-to\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/how-to-step\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/icon\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/icon-list\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/icon-list-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/image\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/image-gallery\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/info-box\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/inline-notice\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/lottie\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/marketing-button\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/modal\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/popup-builder\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/post-button\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-carousel\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-excerpt\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-grid\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-image\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-masonry\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-meta\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-taxonomy\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-timeline\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-title\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu\";i:0;s:26:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu-child\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/review\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/section\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/separator\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/slider\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/slider-child\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/social-share\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/social-share-child\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/star-rating\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/sure-cart-checkout\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/sure-cart-product\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/sure-forms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/table-of-contents\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/tabs\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/tabs-child\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/taxonomy-list\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/team\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/testimonial\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/wp-search\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/instagram-feed\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/login\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-builder\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/loop-category\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/loop-pagination\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/loop-reset\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/loop-search\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/loop-sort\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-wrapper\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/register\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-email\";i:0;s:24:\"uagb\/register-first-name\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/register-last-name\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-password\";i:0;s:30:\"uagb\/register-reenter-password\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-terms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-username\";i:0;}"],"_last_translation_edit_mode":["native-editor"],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":["36"],"_top_nav_excluded":[""],"_cms_nav_minihome":[""],"_yoast_wpseo_focuskeywords":["[{\"keyword\":\"Saisonnalit\\u00e9 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commence vraiment le rallye de fin d'ann\u00e9e ? - seasonax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Quand le rallye de fin d'ann\u00e9e commence-t-il r\u00e9ellement ? 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