{"id":24104,"date":"2026-09-29T09:25:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T07:25:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/?p=24104"},"modified":"2026-09-29T09:25:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T07:25:29","slug":"elections-de-mi-mandat-indice-sp500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/fr\/elections-de-mi-mandat-indice-sp500\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9lections de mi-mandat et le S&P 500 : quand le march\u00e9 bouge avant le vote"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cher investisseur,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis auront lieu le 3 novembre 2026, et les investisseurs suivront naturellement de pr\u00e8s la r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s d\u00e8s que les r\u00e9sultats commenceront \u00e0 tomber. Mais que se passerait-il si les investisseurs qui attendent le jour du scrutin \u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 en retard ? Les donn\u00e9es de Seasonax, qui remontent \u00e0 pr\u00e8s d’un si\u00e8cle, r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une tendance int\u00e9ressante concernant les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Historiquement, l’indice S&P 500 a souvent commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 progresser avant m\u00eame que les \u00e9lecteurs ne se rendent aux urnes.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019analyse des \u00e9v\u00e9nements propos\u00e9e par Seasonax, nous pouvons examiner pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment comment l\u2019indice S&P 500 s\u2019est comport\u00e9 au cours des jours de bourse pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant et suivant imm\u00e9diatement les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Et lorsque l\u2019on examine de plus pr\u00e8s chacune de ces journ\u00e9es de bourse, la tendance qui se dessine devient particuli\u00e8rement int\u00e9ressante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les six jours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant le jour du scrutin<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Commen\u00e7ons par examiner ci-dessous la p\u00e9riode pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant les \u00e9lections. En analysant les 24 \u00e9lections de mi-mandat am\u00e9ricaines pass\u00e9es, on constate que l\u2019indice S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 entre six jours de bourse avant le jour du scrutin et le jour du scrutin lui-m\u00eame \u00e0 18 reprises. Cela repr\u00e9sente un taux de r\u00e9ussite de 75 %. Le rendement moyen au cours de cette p\u00e9riode relativement courte de six jours s’est \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00e0 +1,80 %, tandis que le rendement m\u00e9dian s’est av\u00e9r\u00e9 encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, \u00e0 +2,26 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Tendance
L’indice S&P 500, six jours de bourse avant le jour du scrutin des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Source : Seasonax | <\/a> Consulter l’\u00e9tude d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La configuration de ce motif saisonnier est r\u00e9v\u00e9latrice. L\u2019indice S&P 500 atteint un plus bas environ six jours de bourse avant l\u2019\u00e9lection, puis, historiquement, commence \u00e0 se raffermir. Cette tendance \u00e0 la hausse se poursuit jusqu\u2019aux derniers jours de la campagne \u00e9lectorale et l\u2019indice affiche un niveau nettement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 le jour du scrutin. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est important, car les investisseurs pourraient instinctivement s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce que le march\u00e9 attende le r\u00e9sultat avant de r\u00e9agir. Historiquement, cela n\u2019a souvent pas \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette tendance saisonni\u00e8re plus marqu\u00e9e a en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 commenc\u00e9 avant m\u00eame que le r\u00e9sultat ne soit connu.<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Que se passerait-il si nous prolongeions l’analyse au-del\u00e0 du jour du scrutin ?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nous pouvons alors \u00e9largir l\u00e9g\u00e8rement notre \u00e9tude. Plut\u00f4t que de conclure l\u2019analyse le jour du scrutin, que se passe-t-il si nous examinons la p\u00e9riode allant de six jours de bourse avant l\u2019\u00e9lection jusqu\u2019\u00e0 trois jours de bourse apr\u00e8s celle-ci ? Les r\u00e9sultats historiques s\u2019av\u00e8rent encore plus probants. Sur ces m\u00eames 24 observations, le S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 \u00e0 21 reprises<\/strong>, ce qui conf\u00e8re \u00e0 cette tendance un taux de r\u00e9ussite<\/strong> impressionnant de 87,50 %.<\/strong> Le rendement moyen passe \u00e0 +2,41 %<\/strong>, tandis que le rendement m\u00e9dian s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 +3,22 %.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Tendance
L’indice S&P 500, de six jours de bourse avant les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis jusqu’\u00e0 trois jours de bourse apr\u00e8s celles-ci. Source : Seasonax | <\/a> Consulter l’\u00c9tude d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Il y a ici deux points int\u00e9ressants \u00e0 noter. Premi\u00e8rement, le fait de prolonger la p\u00e9riode de trois jours de bourse apr\u00e8s le jour du scrutin a, historiquement, permis d\u2019am\u00e9liorer \u00e0 la fois le Rendement moyen et le Taux de r\u00e9ussite. Deuxi\u00e8mement, observez attentivement la courbe saisonni\u00e8re. La tendance moyenne continue de progresser imm\u00e9diatement apr\u00e8s le scrutin, pour atteindre son pic environ trois jours de bourse plus tard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainsi, d\u2019un point de vue historique, la phase la plus forte de cette tendance ne s\u2019est pas limit\u00e9e \u00e0 une simple r\u00e9action le jour du scrutin. Au contraire, on observe g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement une tendance \u00e0 la hausse de l\u2019indice S&P 500 \u00e0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections et au cours des premiers Jours de bourse qui suivent.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais que va-t-il se passer ensuite ?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

C’est l\u00e0 que les donn\u00e9es de Seasonax s’av\u00e8rent particuli\u00e8rement utiles. Si l’on \u00e9largit l’\u00e9tude et que l’on examine les 10 jours de bourse suivant les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat<\/strong>, le tableau change consid\u00e9rablement. Sur les 24 observations historiques, l\u2019indice S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 pendant seulement 45,83 %<\/strong> de ces p\u00e9riodes post-\u00e9lectorales. Le rendement moyen s\u2019est en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 \u00e9tabli \u00e0 -0,52 %<\/strong>, avec un rendement m\u00e9dian de -0,54 %.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Motif
S&P 500, du jour du scrutin jusqu’aux 10 jours de bourse suivants. Source : Seasonax | <\/a> Consulter l’\u00e9tude d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Remarquez ce qu’il advient de la courbe saisonni\u00e8re. Apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un pic environ trois jours de bourse apr\u00e8s l’\u00e9lection, la tendance moyenne commence \u00e0 s’affaiblir. D’ici le dixi\u00e8me jour de bourse suivant l’\u00e9lection, la majeure partie de la vigueur observ\u00e9e imm\u00e9diatement apr\u00e8s l’\u00e9lection a, historiquement, \u00e9t\u00e9 perdue. Cela nous donne une image saisonni\u00e8re bien plus pr\u00e9cise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tendance historique ne s\u2019est pas simplement traduite par le fait que les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat soient favorables aux actions. Le timing a jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le important<\/em>.<\/strong> La p\u00e9riode historiquement la plus favorable a g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement commenc\u00e9 environ six jours de bourse avant le jour du scrutin, s\u2019est poursuivie pendant le scrutin lui-m\u00eame et s\u2019est prolong\u00e9e pendant environ trois jours de bourse apr\u00e8s celui-ci. Au-del\u00e0 de ce d\u00e9lai, la tendance historique devient beaucoup moins convaincante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u2019est-ce que cela signifie pour 2026 ?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bien s\u00fbr, rien de tout cela ne nous permet de savoir comment se d\u00e9rouleront les \u00e9lections de 2026. Cela ne nous indique pas non plus comment les investisseurs r\u00e9agiront \u00e0 un r\u00e9sultat politique particulier. Ce n’est pas l’objet de cette \u00e9tude. Ce que Seasonax nous permet de faire, c’est de dissocier la question politique de l’\u00e9volution historique des march\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au cours de pr\u00e8s d’un si\u00e8cle d’\u00e9lections de mi-mandat, l’indice S&P 500 a affich\u00e9 une tendance \u00e9tonnamment constante \u00e0 se raffermir dans les jours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant et suivant imm\u00e9diatement le scrutin. Cependant, le constat le plus int\u00e9ressant est qu’une grande partie de cette hausse a, historiquement, commenc\u00e9 avant le jour du scrutin lui-m\u00eame.<\/em> Reste \u00e0 voir si l’ann\u00e9e 2026 suivra ce sch\u00e9ma historique. Mais \u00e0 l\u2019approche du jour du scrutin, il s\u2019agit sans aucun doute d\u2019une p\u00e9riode saisonni\u00e8re \u00e0 surveiller de pr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utilisez Seasonax pour g\u00e9rer de mani\u00e8re professionnelle les tendances saisonni\u00e8res qui influencent les march\u00e9s !<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne vous contentez pas de trader, utilisez Seasonax.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giles Coghlan, CMT
<\/strong>Strat\u00e8ge macro\u00e9conomique chez Seasonax<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Historiquement, le S&P 500 a souvent commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 progresser avant m\u00eame que les r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat ne soient connus. Les donn\u00e9es Seasonax, qui remontent \u00e0 pr\u00e8s d’un si\u00e8cle, r\u00e9v\u00e8lent un motif saisonnier avec un taux de r\u00e9ussite de 87,50 %, et le moment pr\u00e9cis o\u00f9 il s’estompe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":24130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uagb_previous_block_counts":["a:90:{s:21:\"uagb\/advanced-heading\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/blockquote\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/buttons\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/buttons-child\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/call-to-action\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/cf7-styler\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/column\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/columns\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/container\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/content-timeline\";i:0;s:27:\"uagb\/content-timeline-child\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/countdown\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/counter\";i:0;s:8:\"uagb\/faq\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/faq-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/forms\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-accept\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-checkbox\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-date\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-email\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-hidden\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-name\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-phone\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-radio\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-select\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-textarea\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-toggle\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/forms-url\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/gf-styler\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/google-map\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/how-to\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/how-to-step\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/icon\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/icon-list\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/icon-list-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/image\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/image-gallery\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/info-box\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/inline-notice\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/lottie\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/marketing-button\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/modal\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/popup-builder\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/post-button\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-carousel\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-excerpt\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-grid\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-image\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-masonry\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-meta\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-taxonomy\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-timeline\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-title\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu\";i:0;s:26:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu-child\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/review\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/section\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/separator\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/slider\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/slider-child\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/social-share\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/social-share-child\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/star-rating\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/sure-cart-checkout\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/sure-cart-product\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/sure-forms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/table-of-contents\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/tabs\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/tabs-child\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/taxonomy-list\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/team\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/testimonial\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/wp-search\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/instagram-feed\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/login\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-builder\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/loop-category\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/loop-pagination\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/loop-reset\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/loop-search\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/loop-sort\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-wrapper\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/register\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-email\";i:0;s:24:\"uagb\/register-first-name\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/register-last-name\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-password\";i:0;s:30:\"uagb\/register-reenter-password\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-terms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-username\";i:0;}"],"_last_translation_edit_mode":["native-editor"],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":["36"],"_top_nav_excluded":[""],"_cms_nav_minihome":[""],"_yoast_wpseo_focuskeywords":["[{\"keyword\":\"Motif 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