{"id":24340,"date":"2026-10-13T10:06:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T08:06:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/?p=24340"},"modified":"2026-10-13T10:04:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T08:04:55","slug":"sp-500-elections-de-mi-mandat-marche-boursier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/fr\/sp-500-elections-de-mi-mandat-marche-boursier\/","title":{"rendered":"Les actions adorent les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat !"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cher investisseur,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

je vous pr\u00e9sente aujourd\u2019hui une tendance que presque personne ne conna\u00eet sans doute. Moi-m\u00eame, je ne la connaissais pas non plus avant de r\u00e9diger ces lignes. Je connaissais toutefois des tendances similaires, ce qui m\u2019a d\u2019ailleurs permis de le d\u00e9couvrir. Il s\u2019agit de l\u2019\u00e9volution typique de l\u2019indice S&P 500 lors des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le 3 novembre 2026 auront lieu aux \u00c9tats-Unis les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat, c’est-\u00e0-dire les \u00e9lections interm\u00e9diaires, pour le Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain. \u00c0 cette occasion, tous les membres de la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants et environ un tiers des s\u00e9nateurs seront r\u00e9\u00e9lus. Les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat ont lieu tous les quatre ans.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D’une mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, les \u00e9lections sont des \u00e9v\u00e9nements charg\u00e9s d’\u00e9motion. Elles peuvent donc influencer les cours des actions. Ainsi, les cours des actions allemandes ont tendance \u00e0 augmenter avant les \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales. Il y a quelques ann\u00e9es, j’ai r\u00e9dig\u00e9 un article \u00e0 ce sujet pour l’\u00e9dition allemande du prestigieux Financial Times<\/em>. Je vais maintenant vous montrer ici, dans la rubrique \u00ab Seasonal Insights<\/em> \u00bb, comment \u00e9voluent les actions am\u00e9ricaines lors des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat influencent le march\u00e9 boursier !<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Consultez le graphique \u00e9v\u00e9nementiel correspondant. Il vous montre l\u2019\u00e9volution moyenne du S&P 500 au cours des dix jours de cotation pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant et suivant le jour du scrutin des 23 derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections de mi-mandat depuis 1934, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire apr\u00e8s la forte chute de l\u2019indice li\u00e9e \u00e0 la Grande D\u00e9pression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La ligne rouge au milieu marque le jour du scrutin. Ce graphique vous permet de voir d’un seul coup d’\u0153il l’\u00e9volution des cours des actions am\u00e9ricaines autour du jour du scrutin des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c9volution moyenne de l’indice S&P 500 au cours des 10 jours de bourse pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant et suivant les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat (de 1934 \u00e0 2022)<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"Graphique
Les actions sont en hausse \u00e0 l’approche des \u00e9lections. Source : Seasonax<\/em><\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Comme vous pouvez le constater, les cours moyens des actions ont augment\u00e9 pendant les six jours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant l’\u00e9lection am\u00e9ricaine. Cette hausse s’est poursuivie pendant trois jours suppl\u00e9mentaires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par la suite, les cours ont chut\u00e9. Cela signifie que cette hausse n\u2019est pas li\u00e9e \u00e0 la vigueur habituelle observ\u00e9e en automne, mais bien aux \u00e9lections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C’est entre cinq jours avant et deux jours apr\u00e8s l’\u00e9lection que la hausse est la plus marqu\u00e9e. C’est cette p\u00e9riode que nous allons examiner ci-apr\u00e8s. Elle est \u00e9galement mise en \u00e9vidence sur le graphique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La raison de cette hausse semble r\u00e9sider dans le domaine \u00e9motionnel. Les \u00e9lections attirent fortement l’attention et g\u00e9n\u00e8rent une forte tension int\u00e9rieure. Une telle tension a tendance \u00e0 \u00eatre favorable aux actions, comme on peut \u00e9galement l’observer lors d’autres \u00e9v\u00e9nements. De plus, de nombreuses personnes se montrent optimistes \u00e0 l’approche d’une \u00e9lection. Quelles qu’en soient les raisons, cette hausse est manifestement d\u00e9clench\u00e9e par ces \u00e9lections, comme le montre \u00e9galement le taux de r\u00e9ussite \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un taux de r\u00e9ussite de 96 % !<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Le diagramme \u00e0 barres vous pr\u00e9sente, \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard, pour les 23 derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections de mi-mandat, tous les quatre ans depuis 1934, la performance de l’indice S&P 500 sur la p\u00e9riode allant de cinq jours avant \u00e0 deux jours apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat. Les ann\u00e9es marqu\u00e9es en bleu correspondent \u00e0 celles o\u00f9 des gains ont \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9s, tandis que celles en rouge correspondent \u00e0 celles o\u00f9 des pertes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 subies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500, rendement en pourcentage, de 5 jours avant \u00e0 2 jours apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat (1934 \u00e0 2022)<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"Graphique
Les actions ont augment\u00e9, \u00e0 une exception pr\u00e8s (1994). Source : Seasonax<\/em><\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La tendance observ\u00e9e lors des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat est impressionnante : \u00e0 l’exception de 1994, le S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 lors de toutes les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat depuis 1934, sur la p\u00e9riode allant des cinq jours de cotation pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant le scrutin jusqu’aux deux jours de cotation suivants. Il a donc progress\u00e9 dans 22 cas sur 23. Cela correspond \u00e0 un taux de r\u00e9ussite \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 95,65 % !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La hausse s’est \u00e9lev\u00e9e en moyenne \u00e0 2,74 %. Cela correspond, sur une base annuelle, \u00e0 un taux \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 182,06 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tendance est assez r\u00e9guli\u00e8re<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Observez \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent la courbe de rendement du capital (\u00ab Cumulative Profit \u00bb). Elle vous montre l’\u00e9volution du rendement si vous aviez ouvert une position au cours de cl\u00f4ture cinq jours avant les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat et si vous aviez cl\u00f4tur\u00e9 cette position deux jours apr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 : courbe de rendement de l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat (de 1934 \u00e0 2022)<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"Graphique
La hausse est assez r\u00e9guli\u00e8re. Source : Seasonax<\/em><\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vous pouvez constater que la courbe de rendement monte du coin inf\u00e9rieur gauche vers le coin sup\u00e9rieur droit. Cette progression pr\u00e9sente une courbe parfaitement r\u00e9guli\u00e8re \u2013 exactement ce que recherchent les investisseurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat analys\u00e9es en quelques secondes avec Seasonax<\/em> <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, vous avez d\u00e9couvert un mod\u00e8le statistique de grande qualit\u00e9 qui vous \u00e9tait probablement inconnu jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un mod\u00e8le remarquable pour le march\u00e9 boursier le plus important !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u2019\u00e9tait en tout cas mon cas : je ne le connaissais pas. Et pourtant, il ressemble \u00e0 ce que j\u2019avais publi\u00e9 il y a des ann\u00e9es dans un article pour le Financial Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, cette analyse m\u2019avait demand\u00e9 de nombreuses heures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tout s’est alors d\u00e9roul\u00e9 tr\u00e8s rapidement. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la fonction \u00ab Event \u00bb de Seasonax<\/em>, j’ai pu trouver et analyser le mod\u00e8le en quelques secondes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vous pouvez en faire autant !<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Cordialement,
Dimitri Speck<\/strong>
Fondateur et analyste en chef de Seasonax<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

P.S. : Moi aussi, je tire profit des fonctionnalit\u00e9s<\/em> de Seasonax<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les actions progressent \u00e0 l’approche des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis : depuis 1934, entre cinq jours avant et deux jours apr\u00e8s le scrutin, le S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 dans 22 cas sur 23. Consultez les graphiques et d\u00e9couvrez comment v\u00e9rifier vous-m\u00eame cette tendance \u00e0 l’aide de la fonction \u00ab \u00c9v\u00e9nements \u00bb de Seasonax.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":24341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uagb_previous_block_counts":["a:90:{s:21:\"uagb\/advanced-heading\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/blockquote\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/buttons\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/buttons-child\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/call-to-action\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/cf7-styler\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/column\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/columns\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/container\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/content-timeline\";i:0;s:27:\"uagb\/content-timeline-child\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/countdown\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/counter\";i:0;s:8:\"uagb\/faq\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/faq-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/forms\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-accept\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-checkbox\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-date\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-email\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-hidden\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-name\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-phone\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-radio\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-select\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-textarea\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-toggle\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/forms-url\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/gf-styler\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/google-map\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/how-to\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/how-to-step\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/icon\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/icon-list\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/icon-list-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/image\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/image-gallery\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/info-box\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/inline-notice\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/lottie\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/marketing-button\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/modal\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/popup-builder\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/post-button\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-carousel\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-excerpt\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-grid\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-image\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-masonry\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-meta\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-taxonomy\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-timeline\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-title\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu\";i:0;s:26:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu-child\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/review\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/section\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/separator\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/slider\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/slider-child\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/social-share\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/social-share-child\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/star-rating\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/sure-cart-checkout\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/sure-cart-product\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/sure-forms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/table-of-contents\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/tabs\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/tabs-child\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/taxonomy-list\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/team\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/testimonial\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/wp-search\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/instagram-feed\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/login\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-builder\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/loop-category\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/loop-pagination\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/loop-reset\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/loop-search\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/loop-sort\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-wrapper\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/register\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-email\";i:0;s:24:\"uagb\/register-first-name\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/register-last-name\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-password\";i:0;s:30:\"uagb\/register-reenter-password\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-terms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-username\";i:0;}"],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":[""],"_top_nav_excluded":[""],"_cms_nav_minihome":[""],"_yoast_wpseo_focuskeywords":["[{\"keyword\":\"March\\u00e9 boursier \\u00e0 mi-parcours\",\"score\":67},{\"keyword\":\"Tendances du S&P 500\",\"score\":78}]"],"_thumbnail_id":["24341"],"stackable_optimized_css":[""],"stackable_optimized_css_raw":["a:0:{}"],"_eb_reusable_block_ids":["a:0:{}"],"_edit_lock":["1791878713:19"],"_pingme":["1"],"_encloseme":["1"],"_uag_css_file_name":["uag-css-24340.css"],"blocksy_post_meta_options":["a:1:{s:17:\"styles_descriptor\";a:3:{s:6:\"styles\";a:3:{s:7:\"desktop\";s:0:\"\";s:6:\"tablet\";s:0:\"\";s:6:\"mobile\";s:0:\"\";}s:12:\"google_fonts\";a:0:{}s:7:\"version\";i:8;}}"]},"categories":[3662],"tags":[3677,3678,2644,3668,38,3663],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-24340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-seasonal-insights","tag-etudes-devenements","tag-etudes-devenements-2","tag-sp-500","tag-stocks","tag-actions"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"yoast_head":"\nLes actions adorent les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat ! - seasonax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Depuis 1934, les actions ont progress\u00e9 \u00e0 l'approche des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat dans 22 cas sur 23. 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