{"id":24417,"date":"2026-10-27T13:26:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T12:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/?p=24417"},"modified":"2026-10-27T13:27:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T12:27:32","slug":"actions-black-friday-sp500-walmart-costco-macys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/fr\/actions-black-friday-sp500-walmart-costco-macys\/","title":{"rendered":"Les \u00c9tats-Unis sont une nation de consommateurs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cher investisseur,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vous avez certainement d\u00e9j\u00e0 entendu parler du Black Friday, voire m\u00eame d\u00e9j\u00e0 profit\u00e9 de cette journ\u00e9e. Celle-ci marque le coup d’envoi de la saison des achats de No\u00ebl et fait non seulement l’objet d’offres sp\u00e9ciales, mais retient \u00e9galement particuli\u00e8rement l’attention de la Bourse. Quels sont les comportements d’achat des citoyens am\u00e9ricains cette ann\u00e9e en ce qui concerne les achats de No\u00ebl ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quelques jours seulement apr\u00e8s cette journ\u00e9e de shopping embl\u00e9matique, souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9e aux \u00c9tats-Unis comme un jour de pont apr\u00e8s la f\u00eate de Thanksgiving, les premiers r\u00e9sultats des d\u00e9taillants sont publi\u00e9s. Ces donn\u00e9es rev\u00eatent une importance particuli\u00e8re pour les acteurs boursiers, car elles leur permettent d\u2019\u00e9valuer le comportement d\u2019achat des consommateurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nous analysons ces r\u00e9percussions non seulement au niveau du march\u00e9 dans son ensemble, mais \u00e9galement sur certaines valeurs individuelles. Le r\u00e9sultat fait battre plus fort le c\u0153ur des investisseurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment le march\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain r\u00e9agit-il au Black Friday ?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Pour analyser cette journ\u00e9e importante pour les consommateurs am\u00e9ricains, qui marque \u00e9galement le coup d’envoi de la p\u00e9riode de No\u00ebl, il convient de se pencher sur la f\u00eate de Thanksgiving qui la pr\u00e9c\u00e8de imm\u00e9diatement. Seasonax permet d’\u00e9valuer tr\u00e8s facilement cette derni\u00e8re. Pour ce faire, j\u2019ai tout d\u2019abord examin\u00e9 l\u2019indice S&P 500 sur les 25 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. On constate d\u2019embl\u00e9e une particularit\u00e9 remarquable. Un investissement r\u00e9alis\u00e9 entre 6 jours de bourse avant et 4 jours de bourse apr\u00e8s ce \u00ab vendredi de la consommation \u00bb pr\u00e9sente un rapport particulier de 21 pour 4. Au cours de ces quelques jours, les phases positives permettent de r\u00e9aliser en moyenne un gain de 2,6 %. La perte moyenne enregistr\u00e9e au cours des 4 phases n\u00e9gatives se limite quant \u00e0 elle \u00e0 seulement 1,6 % en moyenne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graphique
L’indice S&P 500 du jour -5 au jour +5 autour de Thanksgiving : 21 titres en hausse avec une moyenne de +2,65 %, 4 titres en baisse avec une moyenne de -1,58 %. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cette particularit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 laisse d\u00e9j\u00e0 supposer qu\u2019il doit exister des titres individuels int\u00e9ressants pour lesquels l\u2019effet \u00ab Black Friday \u00bb peut \u00eatre exploit\u00e9. C\u2019est pourquoi j\u2019ai examin\u00e9 quelques valeurs classiques du secteur de la consommation qui devraient en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Walmart est particuli\u00e8rement fr\u00e9quent\u00e9 en raison de sa taille<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

M\u00eame si cette grande cha\u00eene de grands magasins n’a pas vraiment r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 s’implanter en Allemagne, ce g\u00e9ant de la distribution est, aux \u00c9tats-Unis, une valeur s\u00fbre pendant la p\u00e9riode des f\u00eates de fin d’ann\u00e9e. Les 30 jours de cotation pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant Thanksgiving, et donc \u00e9galement le Black Friday, pr\u00e9sentent un rapport de 17 phases positives pour 7 phases n\u00e9gatives. Le rendement moyen lors des phases positives, \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 7 %, est plus de deux fois sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la perte d\u2019un peu moins de 3 % enregistr\u00e9e lors des phases n\u00e9gatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graphique
Walmart, 30 jours de bourse avant Thanksgiving : 17 titres en hausse (+6,89 % en moyenne), 7 titres en baisse (-2,88 %). Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Les phases les plus d\u00e9favorables remontent d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 plusieurs ann\u00e9es. Ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, la probabilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9aliser un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice s’est donc encore accrue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Costco Wholesale, un indicateur avanc\u00e9 du moral des consommateurs<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ce d\u00e9taillant sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans les articles saisonniers, l’\u00e9lectronique et les cadeaux est v\u00e9ritablement sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans No\u00ebl et, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 ses chiffres d’affaires mensuels, indique tr\u00e8s t\u00f4t si une p\u00e9riode de ventes saisonni\u00e8re sera couronn\u00e9e de succ\u00e8s. L’\u00e9volution du cours de l’action Costco est encore l\u00e9g\u00e8rement meilleure que celle de Walmart \u00e0 l’approche du Black Friday. Au cours de la p\u00e9riode comprise entre les 30 jours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant Thanksgiving et les 3 jours qui suivent, on recense 18 phases positives avec un rendement moyen de pr\u00e8s de 8 %. Sur les 6 phases n\u00e9gatives, 4 remontent \u00e0 plusieurs ann\u00e9es d\u00e9j\u00e0 et n\u2019affichent qu\u2019une perte moyenne de 3,7 %. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Classement
Costco, 30 jours de bourse avant Thanksgiving jusqu’aux 3 jours suivant cette f\u00eate : 18 titres en hausse avec une moyenne de +7,94 %, 6 titres en baisse avec une moyenne de -3,76 %. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Macy\u2019s marque des points gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un chiffre d\u2019affaires r\u00e9alis\u00e9 rapidement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Macy\u2019s est le sp\u00e9cialiste par excellence des cadeaux de No\u00ebl, la cha\u00eene de grands magasins se concentrant en effet sur les cosm\u00e9tiques, la mode et les bijoux. Ces cadeaux classiques semblent \u00eatre particuli\u00e8rement achet\u00e9s \u00e0 partir du 6e jour ouvrable pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant Thanksgiving. Au cours de cette courte p\u00e9riode, un rendement moyen de 7,7 % a pu \u00eatre r\u00e9alis\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent sur 21 phases, alors que les deux autres valeurs mentionn\u00e9es ont n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 nettement plus de temps. Les pertes sont quant \u00e0 elles n\u00e9gligeables, avec seulement 4 phases et une perte moyenne de 3,2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graphique
Macy\u2019s, 6 jours de bourse avant Thanksgiving : 21 titres en hausse avec une moyenne de +7,76 %, 4 titres en baisse avec une moyenne de -3,23 %. Source : Seasonax<\/a> | Consulter les donn\u00e9es<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion : tirez parti des effets saisonniers pour b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de votre propre remise \u00ab Black Friday \u00bb<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Vous pouvez parfaitement tirer parti des anomalies saisonni\u00e8res d\u2019avant No\u00ebl pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici pour renflouer votre budget de No\u00ebl. Les ratios et les rendements moyens en t\u00e9moignent, tout comme la dur\u00e9e de d\u00e9tention tr\u00e8s courte. Vous pouvez ainsi obtenir un effet rapide, qui se traduit imm\u00e9diatement par un comportement de consommation adapt\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vos proches vous en seront reconnaissants si, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 vos gains boursiers, vos cadeaux s\u2019av\u00e8rent un peu plus somptueux ou originaux. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonax vous souhaite beaucoup de succ\u00e8s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Profitez de ces avantages et faites appel \u00e0<\/strong> de Seasonax<\/em> pour g\u00e9rer de mani\u00e8re professionnelle les fluctuations saisonni\u00e8res !<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cordialement,
Christoph Geyer, CFTe<\/strong>
Laur\u00e9at du prix \u00ab AktienAnalystenAward \u00bb dans la cat\u00e9gorie \u00ab Analyse technique \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Actions Black Friday en chiffres : le S&P 500 a \u00e9t\u00e9 positif sur 21 des 25 p\u00e9riodes autour de cette journ\u00e9e. D\u00e9couvrez comment Walmart, Costco et Macy\u2019s ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 autour de Thanksgiving et quand le motif appara\u00eet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":24418,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uagb_previous_block_counts":["a:90:{s:21:\"uagb\/advanced-heading\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/blockquote\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/buttons\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/buttons-child\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/call-to-action\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/cf7-styler\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/column\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/columns\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/container\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/content-timeline\";i:0;s:27:\"uagb\/content-timeline-child\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/countdown\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/counter\";i:0;s:8:\"uagb\/faq\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/faq-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/forms\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-accept\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-checkbox\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-date\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-email\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-hidden\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/forms-name\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-phone\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/forms-radio\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-select\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/forms-textarea\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/forms-toggle\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/forms-url\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/gf-styler\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/google-map\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/how-to\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/how-to-step\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/icon\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/icon-list\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/icon-list-child\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/image\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/image-gallery\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/info-box\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/inline-notice\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/lottie\";i:0;s:21:\"uagb\/marketing-button\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/modal\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/popup-builder\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/post-button\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-carousel\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-excerpt\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-grid\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-image\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/post-masonry\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/post-meta\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-taxonomy\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/post-timeline\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/post-title\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu\";i:0;s:26:\"uagb\/restaurant-menu-child\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/review\";i:0;s:12:\"uagb\/section\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/separator\";i:0;s:11:\"uagb\/slider\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/slider-child\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/social-share\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/social-share-child\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/star-rating\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/sure-cart-checkout\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/sure-cart-product\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/sure-forms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/table-of-contents\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/tabs\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/tabs-child\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/taxonomy-list\";i:0;s:9:\"uagb\/team\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/testimonial\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/wp-search\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/instagram-feed\";i:0;s:10:\"uagb\/login\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-builder\";i:0;s:18:\"uagb\/loop-category\";i:0;s:20:\"uagb\/loop-pagination\";i:0;s:15:\"uagb\/loop-reset\";i:0;s:16:\"uagb\/loop-search\";i:0;s:14:\"uagb\/loop-sort\";i:0;s:17:\"uagb\/loop-wrapper\";i:0;s:13:\"uagb\/register\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-email\";i:0;s:24:\"uagb\/register-first-name\";i:0;s:23:\"uagb\/register-last-name\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-password\";i:0;s:30:\"uagb\/register-reenter-password\";i:0;s:19:\"uagb\/register-terms\";i:0;s:22:\"uagb\/register-username\";i:0;}"],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":["36"],"_top_nav_excluded":[""],"_cms_nav_minihome":[""],"_yoast_wpseo_focuskeywords":["[{\"keyword\":\"Effet 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\u00c9tats-Unis sont une nation de consommateurs - seasonax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le point sur les actions du Black Friday : 21 phases haussi\u00e8res sur 25 pour le S&P 500. 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