MONTHLY TRADING PICKS

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Trading Opportunity

Alexion’s stock shows an exceptional seasonal pattern in the month of July

This time we have picked Alexion pharmaceuticals as our monthly trading pick. It is a large corporation, founded in the 1990s, and now accounting for more than three billion in yearly earnings. Its headquarters is in in New Haven, Conneticut and it is specialized in so called “Orphan-Drugs”, meaning the treatment of rare diseases.

Below is a chart showing the typical pattern the stock exhibits during the course of a calendar year.  These patterns can be discerned at a glance on a seasonal chart, which is calculated by averaging the performance of the stock over the past 10 years. The horizontal axis depicts the time of the year, the vertical axis the level of the seasonal pattern (indexed to 100).

Source: Seasonax

As the chart shows, the stock has historically performed very strongly. The stock price in 2017 is more than six times higher than in 2008. However, there is still an opportunity to pick out a time of the year that has shown stronger growth than the year-round average. The time-period associated with the strongest seasonal performance is highlighted on the chart in blue. It begins on June 29th and ends on August 3rd.  

Alexion shows 100% Winning Trades

In the examined time-period, Alexion’s stock shows incredible winning trades of 100% - every year the seasonal pattern has repeated itself. Not only the frequency is exceptional in this seasonal pattern, the annualized return of 275% is extraordinary as well.

The bar chart below illustrates this fact. Not only has there been an increase in value for every year, but it visualizes that the growth has been significant every year besides 2014. Red bars indicate years in which negative returns were posted, green bars indicate years with positive returns. As you can see, there has not been one year with negative returns during the examined time-period.

Source: Seasonax