MONTHLY TRADING PICK

Increase your trading consistency by taking advantage of seasonal trading opportunities

Trading Opportunity

PUMA ON THE PROWL

A re-occurring trend is always welcome news to seasonal investors and one seasonal pattern has been consistently popping up every March-April. Considering the increasingly unpredictable nature of global markets and politics, coupled with predicted slowdowns in growth, leads investors to having a hard time in deciding where to best exploit trading opportunities.

This article will examine a stock that has consistently shown a spike in March and April that we think has a high probability of repeating itself. Using our web application, we have identified this solid seasonal market trend in Puma SE’s stocks from March 9th through to April 23th. Puma is one of the world’s most renown and recognisable sports brands. It has a long history dating all the way back to the 1920’s to a small shoemaking village in Germany. They gained fame when Jesse Owens wore their shoes at the notorious 1936 Olympics. Although their historical record is not completely squeaky clean, they’ve had a long and successful run.  

Seasonax’s unique algorithm has allowed us to predict, based on previous seasonal trends, how we can expect Puma to fare from beginning March through to end April, and we’re optimistic.

Below is a chart showing the typical pattern the stock exhibits during the course of a calendar year. These patterns can be discerned at a glance on a seasonal chart, which is calculated by averaging performance of the stock over the past 15 years. The horizontal axis depicts the time of the year, the vertical axis the level of the seasonal pattern (indexed to 100).

Source: Seasonax 

As the chart shows, the stock has historically performed very strongly beginning March, spiking all the way until end April. Its performance throughout the rest of the year is solid but lacking the dramatic Seasonal trends that we see earlier in the year.

Political volatility, especially the China - U.S trade war was raised as a concern in the 2018 Q1 Puma report, but it still did remarkably well, with a sales increase of 21.5%. Even in the Q3 of 2018 (at the height of uncertainty) Puma’s reported sales increased. The market conditions seem uncertain but currently stable and Puma is certainly on a high. Their quarterly reports and analysis are available on their website and are well worth a look at.


Puma shows 90% winning trades

In the examined time-period, Puma SE exhibits a very strong 90% Winning Trades. Recent stock prices for Puma in their latest quarterly reports suggest that this trend will continue into March/April. The charts below analyse yearly pattern returns for March 9 to April 23 as well as demonstrating statistically the annualised return and the winning trades in percentage.  

Source: Seasonax

There are plenty of other seasonal opportunities that are presenting themselves, especially in the first few months of the year. Stay ahead of the curve and utilise our Seasonax Web-App to maximise the potential of trades based on reliable data and quantifiable stock market trends.