Trading without paying attention to high probability Seasonal patterns is like never learning from history. You are doomed to repeat the same mistakes and miss great opportunities.
Here’s where “Seasonality” comes in.
Seasonal patterns alert you to market opportunities that repeat over and over again. It’s like receiving a trade idea that wins 75% of the time over the past 20 years that you can take action on this week. Or like a bright red flag that warns you against your perfect summer stock idea.
Sell in May and Go Away?
You probably know
This phase originated from a long term Seasonal study starting in the 1930’s which pointed to stock market weakness around May with most of all stock market gains coming from the Autumn months.
What you may not know
Seasonal patterns aren’t just general historical trends. These patterns also contain very specific windows for outsized gains and losses on stocks in the S&P 500 index.
Over a 21 day window the Mexican Peso (USDMXN) gains in value on average 1.84% starting August 10th every year for the past 15 years! This happens year in and year out 73% of the time.
Over a similar 13 day window starting August 10th, one Taiwanese dollar gains .5% on the US dollar over the past 20 years with an 73% win rate!
The best part? It’s completely free for 30 days. No credit card required.
For a complete look on seasonality I always turn to Seasonax charts.
Larry Williams Market legend
Seasonax provides extremely valuable insights that I would not be able to discover otherwise and it really compliments the charting tools already available on the terminal to provide an unrivalled technical analysis experience.
Oliver T. Woolf CAIA, CMT, FRM, Quant Technical Strategist Bloomberg
Seasonax provides an unrivalled depth of data, often more than 30 years. It is easy and flexible to use and visually very clear. The intraday optimization is a helpful tool for our traders.
Iain Brown Senior Portfolio Manager Insight Investment
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