So, Why Seasonality?
Let’s Face it
Trading without paying attention to high probability Seasonal patterns is like never learning from history. You are doomed to repeat the same mistakes and miss great opportunities.
Here’s where “Seasonality” comes in.
Seasonal patterns alert you to market opportunities that repeat over and over again. It’s like receiving a trade idea that wins 75% of the time over the past 20 years that you can take action on this week. Or like a bright red flag that warns you against your perfect summer stock idea.
Sell in May and Go Away?
You probably know
This phase originated from a long term Seasonal study starting in the 1930’s which pointed to stock market weakness around May with most of all stock market gains coming from the Autumn months.
What you may not know
Seasonal patterns aren’t just general historical trends. These patterns also contain very specific windows for outsized gains and losses on stocks in the S&P 500 index.
Over a 12 day window AvalonBay Communities (AVB) gains in value on average 2% starting August 26th every year for the past 20 years! This happens year in and year out 85% of the time.
Or over the same 12 day window – Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) has averaged a 6.97% over the past 20 years with an 85% win rate!
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