Seasonax | Seasonalities are regular and predictable patterns that recur every calendar year

Start benefiting from recurring seasonal patterns

Seasonalities are regular and predictable patterns that recur every calendar year. Every industry exhibits unique seasonal trends, based on solid fundamental drivers. The best-known seasonal drivers include harvest periods, the timing of interest payments, tax or balance sheet deadlines, earning reports, the weather, investor sentiment at certain times of the year, as well as traditional patterns, such as the year-end rally in the stock market.

Introduction

Some seasonal effects are stable over the decades.
Let’s start with a simple example which you probably know – the “Sell in May” Effect.

The seasonal chart on the right depicts the return of a Dow Jones investment since 1960 based on the season of the year. As you can see winter months are much more profitable than summer months. To be more precise winter season outperforms the summer season significantly by 3374.2 percent!

This is a strong evidence that seasonal trends do exist in the financial markets. Identify many more seasonal patterns for the instruments that you want to trade. Achieve maximum consistency while trading within your defined risks and back your decisions statistically.

Seasonal chart of the Dow Jones - winter months are much more profitable than summer months

5 examples of seasonal patterns

Give your trading a statistical edge! Select an instrument below.
Move left/right to see either seasonal chart, performance distribution or the detailed statistics.

This example shows a 20-year seasonal chart of Microsoft, on which we have highlighted the time period from October 10 to November 5, which represents the “seasonally strong period” due to the earning surprises.
All the statistics you see on the next slides refer exclusively to this time period.

Evaluation of the seasonal chart for Microsoft stock

The "cumulative profit" line on the left hand side shows the total gain one would achieved over time by being long Microsoft between October 10 and November 5 in every year from 2000 until today. The "pattern returns" on the right hand side show 90% of the winning trades and represent quite stable pattern. The blue bars represent the profit for each year during the selected time period and red bars represent the years when the pattern did not occur. This seasonal pattern bear a loss in just 2 of the past 20 years.

Possible profits for the selected seasonal pattern for Microsoft stock

Between October 10 and November 5, Microsoft rose on average by 8.28% over the past 20 years. The selected time period amounts to an impressive annualized gain of 203.90%! This astonishing results were achieved in only 18 trading days. Detailed statistics of the selected pattern for every single year is also available on the left.

This example shows a 20-year seasonal chart of Novo Nordisk, on which we have highlighted the time period from February 4 to March 4, which represents the “seasonally strong period”.
All the statistics you see on the next slides refer exclusively to this time period.

Evaluation of the seasonal chart for Novo Nordisk stock

The "cumulative profit" line on the left hand side shows the total gain one would achieved over time by being long Novo Nordisk between February 4 and March 4 in every year from 2001 until today. The "pattern returns" on the right hand side show 85% of the winning trades and represent quite stable pattern. The blue bars represent the profit for each year during the selected time period and red bars represent the years when the pattern did not occur. This seasonal pattern bear a loss in just 3 of the past 20 years.

Possible profits for the selected seasonal pattern for Novo Nordisk stock

Between February 4 and March 4, Novo Nordisk rose on average by 6.26% over the past 20 years. The selected time period amounts to an impressive annualized gain of 119.57%! This astonishing results were achieved in only 19 trading days. Detailed statistics of the selected pattern for every single year is also available on the left.

This example shows a 20-year seasonal chart of Adidas, on which we have highlighted the time period from March 12 to April 27, which represents the “seasonally strong period”.
All the statistics you see on the next slides refer exclusively to this time period.

Evaluation of the seasonal chart for adidas stock

The "cumulative profit" line on the left hand side shows the total gain one would achieved over time by being long Adidas between March 12 and April 27 in every year from 2000 until today. The "pattern returns" on the right hand side show 90% of the winning trades and represent quite stable pattern. The blue bars represent the profit for each year during the selected time period and red bars represent the years when the pattern did not occur. This seasonal pattern bear a loss in just 2 of the past 20 years.

Possible profits for the selected seasonal pattern for adidas stock

Between March 12 and April 27, Adidas rose on average by 9.05% over the past 20 years. The selected time period amounts to an impressive annualized gain of 99.01%! This astonishing results were achieved in only 31 trading days. Detailed statistics of the selected pattern for every single year is also available on the left.

Commodities often provide an alternative to investing in stocks – and they have clearly discernible seasonal trends. This example shows a 20-year seasonal chart of Silver on which we have highlighted the time period from December 20 to February 23, which represents the “seasonally strong period”. The rise in silver prices early in the year is mainly caused by numerous industrial silver users placing their orders for the metal at the beginning of the new financial year.
All the statistics you see on the next slides refer exclusively to this time period.

Evaluation of the seasonal chart for Silver

The "cumulative profit" line on the left hand side shows the total gain one would achieved over time by being long Silver between December 20 and February 23 in every year from 2000 until today. The "pattern returns" on the right hand side show 80% of the winning trades and represent quite stable pattern. The blue bars represent the profit for each year during the selected time period and red bars represent the years when the pattern did not occur. This seasonal pattern bear a loss
in just 4 of the past 20 years.

Possible profits for the selected seasonal pattern for Silver

Between December 20 and February 23, Silver rose on average by 9.06% over the past 20 years. The selected time period amounts to an impressive annualized gain of 62.66%! This astonishing results were achieved in only 46 trading days. Detailed statistics of the selected pattern for every single year is also available on the left.

This example shows a 20-year seasonal chart of Platinum, on which we have highlighted the time period from January 2 to February 27, which represents the “seasonally strong period”. The rise in platinum prices early in the year is mainly caused by numerous industrial silver users placing their orders for the metal at the beginning of the new financial year.
All the statistics you see on the next slides refer exclusively to this time period.

Evaluation of the seasonal chart for Platinum

The "cumulative profit" line on the left hand side shows the total gain one would achieved over time by being long Platinum between January 2 and February 27 in every year from 2001 until today. The "pattern returns" on the right hand side show 90% of the winning trades and represent quite stable pattern. The blue bars represent the profit for each year during the selected time period and red bars represent the years when the pattern did not occur. This seasonal pattern bear a loss
in just 2 of the past 20 years.

Possible profits for the selected seasonal pattern for Platinum

Between January 2 and February 27, Platinum rose on average by 6.55% over the past 20 years. The selected time period amounts to an impressive annualized gain of 51.56%! These astonishing results were achieved in only 38 trading days. Detailed statistics of the selected pattern for every single year is also available on the left.

200+ years study concludes: Seasonality is the best investment strategy for a multi-asset portfolio.

Not only we consider seasonality to be a profitable trading approach, but also professional economists. Researchers from Erasmus University in Rotterdam have examined several investment strategies in 68 individual markets over up to 217 years of market history. Note how the best strategy beats the others across the main four asset classes.

More about seasonality - Give your trading a statistical edge!

Dive deeper into the world of seasonality and watch the most webinar featuring our Head Analyst and Founder Dimitri Speck. The webinar was hosted by the CMT.

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