Dear Investor,
When you think of seasonality, commodities or stock indices are likely the first instruments that come to mind.
However, there are also seasonal trends in instruments known for their spectacular and volatile price gains-namely Bitcoin.
Today I would like to take a closer look at the seasonality of Bitcoin for you. I will examine the current phase with a particular focus on recent years.
A closer look at the seasonality of Bitcoin
First, take a look at the seasonality of Bitcoin in the seasonal chart.
The seasonal chart shows you the development of the price of Bitcoin depending on the time of year. The horizontal axis shows the time of year, the vertical axis the value of the seasonal index. This allows you to see the seasonal trend at a glance.
Bitcoin, seasonal trend, calculated over 10 years
Bitcoin is relatively weak in summer. Source: Seasonax
As you can see, Bitcoin usually rises seasonally.
But there are also weaker phases. I have highlighted one of those phases from May 21 to September 25.
Now, while it’s true that Bitcoin gained an annualized average of 15.01% during this period, that return pales in comparison to the opposite seasonal window, from September 25 to May 21. During that time, Bitcoin’s annualized gain surged to 138.56%—nearly nine times higher!
It is also worrying that the weak phase from May 21 to September 25 has been particularly pronounced in recent years.
Over the past three years, this period has consistently produced losses. Looking at the broader seven-year window, the average annualized decline stands at -17.61%. Some of the drops have been particularly severe, with the largest occurring in 2022, when Bitcoin fell by 36.19%.
Bitcoin has a difficult phase ahead of it
The price of Bitcoin fluctuates strongly. In the past, there have often been high gains, but also large losses. Losses occurred more frequently in the months up to the end of September.
From a seasonal perspective, caution is now advised with Bitcoin at this time of year!
Best regards,
Dimitri Speck
Founder and chief analyst of Seasonax
PS: Use Seasonax for both your speculative and conservative investments!
