The Midterm-Year Rally in Gold
Gold follows the same 4-year cycle as stocks. Since 1968, midterm years like 2026 have delivered their best average return by far, reaching 11.09% on average, with the rally typically taking hold from July onward.
Dimitri Speck
Dimitri Speck is a renowned financial analyst and fund manager, who has earned accolades for his innovative seasonal investment strategy. Dimitri is a prolific writer, with one of the biggest stock market letters in Germany, along with several books. He won several awards, including the Hedge Fund Journal’s award for the best European commodity fund in 2013 and the Scope Innovations Award in 2018.
Semiconductors vs. S&P 500: Who Wins Seasonally?
The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 177.73% within a year. But what comes next seasonally? The data tells a clear story: the coming months could be challenging.
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Seasonal patterns rarely exist in isolation. When viewed alongside other instruments or timeframes, differences in strength, timing, and consistency begin to stand out. This broader perspective helps reveal how individual patterns behave within the wider market environment – often reshaping how they should be interpreted.
The 4-Year Cycle: Will Gold Rise Even Further?
Periods that are historically difficult for stocks can reveal different dynamics in gold. By examining long-term seasonality and the four-year cycle, gold’s performance is placed into a broader market context that helps frame market behavior over time.
What Will 2026 Look Like? The 4-Year Cycle Offers Answers
The year 2026 is a so-called midterm election year in the US four-year election cycle. Historically, it is the weakest period for the stock market, with below-average returns for the Dow Jones. Nevertheless, even in such years, targeted opportunities arise outside the overall market.
Can Broadcom Still Make Significant Gains?
Broadcom exhibits strong seasonal performance: From the beginning of November to mid-December, the stock has risen by an average of 17% over the past ten years, with a success rate of 90%. This period marks the strongest seasonal increase of the year.
How Do I Find a Good Seasonal Pattern?
Why do top traders often rely on just 10 years of data to spot seasonal trends? Dimitri Speck explains why this timeframe is often enough to reveal actionable patterns, how timing can matter more than sheer history, and why even a single outlier year rarely undermines the overall trend, making it a practical choice for reliable trading decisions.
The US Post-Election Year Suggests a Stronger Seasonal Decline
The US election influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial. In the current post-election year, seasonals suggest a stronger upcoming seasonal decline.
After the Strong Rise: What’s Next for Gold?
Gold typically enters its strongest seasonal phase in the second half of the year, with consistent gains driven by rising jewelry demand. Over the past 25 years, it has delivered an average return of nearly 10% during this period, making seasonality a powerful factor to consider when investing in gold.