The 5 Ways to Use Seasonality when Investing
In this Seasonal Insight you will learn about the 5 Ways to Use Seasonality when Investing
Dimitri Speck
Dimitri Speck is a renowned financial analyst and fund manager, who has earned accolades for his innovative seasonal investment strategy. Dimitri is a prolific writer, with one of the biggest stock market letters in Germany, along with several books. He won several awards, including the Hedge Fund Journal’s award for the best European commodity fund in 2013 and the Scope Innovations Award in 2018.
How Does Gold Perform Around the Turn of the Month?
The "turn of the month" effect has frequently been studied in relation to the U.S. stock markets. It shows that stocks tend to rise more around the turn of the month than around the middle of the month.
How You Can Benefit From Event Studies
Event Studies provide a completely new way to improve your investment strategies.
The New Seasonax Feature – “Event Studies”: How do Events Affect Prices?
In 2011, the Journal of Finance, the most influential academic financial journal at the time, published an award-winning study that examined the behavior of U.S. stock prices prior to FED meetings.
Event study: How do key interest rate hikes affect stock prices?
Have you ever wondered how stock or commodity prices will behave when futures contracts expire, and when labor market or inflation numbers are published, or when the Fed meets for its FOMC meeting?
Is an October Crash looming?
Tensions in the markets are increasing. Interest rate hikes, the rise in the U.S. dollar, the energy crisis in Europe, and signs of recession, are just some of the indicators that could point to further price declines.
Is trouble looming? The weakest month has begun!
This allows you to closely examine a seasonal trend from, for example, the 10th of one month to the 22nd of the following month, with just a few mouse clicks.
How to find good seasonal short phases
PDF Download (GERMAN) Article in German When you think of the markets, long investments are probably the first thing that come to mind. However, in difficult times it can make sense to take short positions. Indeed, you can spot good…
A seasonal increase is in store for silver
PDF Download (GERMAN) Four weeks ago, in the issue of Seasonal Insights, I brought you an analysis on the seasonality of gold. Today I want to take a closer look at another popular precious metal: silver. Silver, often referred to…
On the data basis of 54 years: now is the season for buying gold!
PDF Download (GERMAN) Article in German You may be wondering why the price of gold has not taken off as inflation rises sharply. After all, despite initial increases, interest rates are now well below the rate of inflation – and…
Gold and metals under the seasonal magnifying glass
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Gold under the seasonal magnifying glass The chart below shows you the seasonal course of gold prices. Unlike standard charts, it does not show the price over a certain period of time, but rather…
Have you considered selling your home now?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Did you know that in real estate you can save a lot of money by factoring in seasonality? You could even make more profit! In fact, seasonally speaking, right now is a good time…
US Election Cycle: Mid-Term Election Years Tend to be Weak From Now On!
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German As you know, Joe Biden was elected as the President of the United States in 2020. However, did you know that there is a typical four-year cycle that follows elections? The course of the…
This is How You Can Systematically Increase Your Profits
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Many individual stocks display unique seasonal patterns – when you log into Seasonax you will immediately find up to date examples. There is a variety of reasons for this phenomenon. Often internal procedures are…
Inflation Fear: How to Benefit From the Best Season of Copper
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Prices are rising and rising, and many analysts fear that interest-sensitive sectors, such as technology stocks, could come under pressure. At Seasonax, therefore, we also look at the seasonality of commodities and commodity stocks…
Interest Rate Hikes at FED meetings: How are stocks reacting?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Eight times a year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) meets to discuss and decide on monetary policy, and the level of key interest rates. In view of…
2022: The Most Difficult Year in The 4-Year Cycle Has Begun.
Article in German At the turn of the year 2021/22, you as an investor may be thinking about all kinds of things that can influence prices, but not about the US presidential election. After all, it took place in November…
Forex Seasonality: The US Dollar Drop at The End of The Year
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German In the context of seasonality, you may – just like most investors – primarily think of commodities and stock indexes. However, there are seasonal patterns in many other markets and instruments as well, ranging…
Does the Golden Autumn Start a Gold Rush?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German In recent months, many commodities have seen marked rises. On the other hand, precious metals have lagged behind. However, in view of this commodity boom, you may be asking if gold will in fact…
October is here: are sharp declines now looming?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Problems surrounding Evergrande, the Chinese property development company, are causing unrest in the stock markets. On top of this, October has also begun – the month that has a particularly bad reputation for traders!…
A Nasty Hangover after the German Parliamentary Election?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German You may have heard of the so-called election cycle. This cycle, which is popular in the US, impacts stock markets for four years in a statistically significant way. Does anything similar exist in other…
5 seasonal strategies for your investment practice
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German I am often asked how one can make the most of seasonal trends in one’s actual investment practice. I get acquainted with a wide variety of investment styles in this context. The good thing…
Inflation threat: is gold seasonality favorable as well?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German There was a strong increase in recently released US inflation data. They exceeded expectations four times in a row and most recently stood at 5.4 percent. High inflation rates are a good reason to…
What Is Happening with Stocks on Quadruple Witching Day?
Article in German Four times a year – on the third Friday of March, June, September and December – contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, single stock futures and stock options all expire on the same day. Many…
Halloween Effect: How Risky is it really to Invest in Stocks from May Onward?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Perhaps you are wondering whether strong returns can be generated with the help of seasonality. It is after all a fairly simple method – at least at first glance. Thousands of analysts and computer…
Federal Reserve: How stocks and currencies actually move around the FOMC meeting
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German Eight times every year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve holds its regular monetary policy meeting. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of this meeting with bated breath, as it…
Seasonal Patterns in Commodities
Article in German Over the past several months there have been spectacular rallies in numerous commodities, from copper to crude oil to soybeans. In light of this many investors are wondering how they can optimally exploit the striking seasonal trends…
The Dow Jones 10-year Cycle
Article in German Annual seasonality is undoubtedly the most important cycle for you as an investor. But there are also cycles with different durations. In the 30 December 2020 issue of Seasonal Insights I e.g. discussed the 4-year cycle, also…
7 Tips to Recognize the Best Seasonal Patterns
Article in German It is important for you as an investor to recognize and evaluate the best seasonal patterns quickly in practice. This enables you to systematically improve your investment success without unnecessarily wasting any of your valuable time. The…
Four Year Cycle – a Lengthy Bear Market After the Election?
PDF download (GERMAN) Article in German 2020 is drawing to a close. It had a dreadful surprise in store for us with the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, which had a strong impact on financial markets as well. Furthermore, US…
Japanese Stocks: The Sun Is About To Rise In The Far East!
Article in German The US presidential elections and the corona crisis are currently dominating financial markets. Perhaps this is a good reason to let our gaze wander into the distance. Let us therefore take a look at the Japanese stock…
An Impending Seasonal Trend in the FOREX Markets
Article in German In the context of seasonality, you may – just like most investors – primarily think of commodities and stock indexes. However, there are seasonal patterns in many other markets and instruments as well, ranging from individual stocks…
Against all Expectations: Crude Oil is About to Enter a Seasonal Decline!
Article in German Similar to many other market observers you may be expecting a seasonal rally in the crude oil price on account of the start of the heating season in autumn. After all, energy consumption will increase during the…
For Bitcoin, the seasonally weakest period of the year is beginning now
Article in German For Bitcoin, the seasonally weakest period of the year is beginning now When you are pondering seasonality, commodities or stock market indexes are probably the first things that come to mind. Perhaps you consider single stocks or…
Gold and gold mining stocks are entering a strong seasonal phase
Article in German Gold and gold mining stocks are entering a strong seasonal phase If you have kept track of the seasonality of gold, you will be aware that gold typically rallies from the middle of the year. This trend…
An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
Article in German An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead In recent issues of Seasonal Insights, my colleague Tea Muratovic and I shared our analysis of global stock markets with you. Today I want to put a…
Sell in May: Which country is now threatened by the biggest price decline?
You are presumably aware of the saying "sell in May and go away". This popular seasonal stock market saying conveys that the stock market tends to underperform in the six summer months compared to the six winter months.
Negative Crude Oil Prices: How to Trade Commodities Optimally with Seasonax
PDF download In commodities trading, seasonality is quite a popular tool – and rightly so! For example, agricultural commodities are often cheaper after the harvest than before the harvest. Natural gas that is difficult to store tends to be cheaper…
Corona-Crash: Which day of the week drops most, which beats all others?
Article in German Currently on some days stock prices are dropping like stones. Therefore, knowing on which days of the week prices typically decline sharply is of great value to investors. Today, I will examine the performance of the S&P…
Don’t Let The Fear Of Market Downturns Get In The Way Of Solid Gains
After witnessing events like the phenomenally sharp decline that the stock market recently saw in reaction to the coronavirus epidemic, it is easy to give in to the “doom-and-gloom” sentiment that is not only evident in the markets, but also…
How Often Does the Christmas Rally Bring You Presents?
Article in German You have probably already heard about the Christmas rally. It is one of the most popular seasonal patterns, and lasts from mid-December to early January. It is in fact one of the most profitable seasonal patterns for…
CMT Webinar with Dimitri Speck
How You Can Benefit from Little Known Seasonal and Cyclical Patterns Did you ever want to get full information about seasonal and cyclical patterns? We are proud to present you the newest recording of the webinar of our head analyst…
Danger Awaits in October – or Does it?
Nervous feelings start to arise all around the global financial markets when October approaches. Investors fear the sharp declines that this month has brought in the past – wiping away the whole year’s profits in a single day. However, looking…
TDI Podcast: Well Seasoned Finance
Our founder and head analyst Dimitri Speck on The Disciplined Investor Listen to our founder and head analyst Dimitri Speck on Episode 558 of the financial podcast The Disciplined Investor, talking to Andrew Horrowitz about seasonal patterns and his approach…
Market Seasonal Opportunities and How to Use Them
Bloomberg invites to a deep dive of the Seasonax App Save the date: Wednesday, November 29th, 2017, 11:00-12:00 Place to be: Bloomberg Office, Kärtner Ring 11-13, 1010 Vienna, Austria Start picking your winning trades and learn how to: Decipher when…
Bloomberg Introducing Seasonax App
Save the date: November 16th, 2017, 11:00-12:00 Place to be: Bloomberg/Newsroom, Neue Mainzer Strasse 75, Frankfurt, 40212, Germany Start picking your winning trades by attending our event! Learn how to: Decipher when are the best times to invest Choose the…
Deutsche Bank Settlement: Seasonal Intraday Charts Provide Evidence for Market Manipulation
Deutsche Bank Caves In Deutsche Bank trader: “u just said u sold on fix.” Answer UBS trader: “yeah, we smashed it good.” Deutsche Bank is a defendant in more than 7,000 lawsuits worldwide. In two of them it has recently…
Seasonax Now Available on Bloomberg’s App Portal
Seasonax now available on Bloomberg’s App Portal New analytics and charting software gains access to financial market community VIENNA, AUSTRIA—Seasonax GmbH today announced that its analytics and charting application Seasonax is available to Bloomberg Professional service subscribers via the Bloomberg…
Interview: “A Game Changing Algorithm as a By-product”
Dimitri Speck, the author of this Blog, is a professional in the field of pattern recognition and the development of trading systems. In the following interview he talks about his career path and walks you through the field of seasonality.…