Expect 0.5%+ move on the EURUSD on Friday’s NFP

Instrument: EURUSD 
Percent move of instrument: -10.07% 
Winning trade percentage: N/A 
Start of seasonal pattern: NFP release 
End of seasonal pattern: End of day on NFP release 

On Friday we have the US non-farm payroll is print and markets are looking for reasons to price in the next monetary policy move from the federal reserve. An out of consensus print is likely to sharply move the USD. However, how much is the EURUSD likely to move?  

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Well, looking at Seasonax’s risk event feature we can see the move in the EURUSD over the last 5 years of NFP prints. The data tells us that the maximum move higher on NFP day has been 0.89% and the maximum move lower -0.59%. Even more helpfully the maximum move is also recorded, We can see that maximum total move before the end of the day was 0.89% and the maximum drop was -0.59% too.  

This means that should there be an out of consensus print that is around the most that the EURUSD can be expected to move. This is very helpful in terms of setting targets.  

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Furthermore, if we extend the data to include 2 days we can see that the maximum gain in 1.44% and the maximum loss is 1.37%. So, if traders were wanting to hold a position on a surprise print these are some of the maximum expectations that could be reasonably expected. 

The major trade risk here is that previous price patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves each time.  

Remember, don’t just trade it Seasonax It! 

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