Giles Coghlan

Giles Coghlan

As a professional market analyst and commentator, Giles' goal is simple: to explain the current reason markets are moving the way they are so you that can make better trading decisions right now. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.
wti crude set for gains amid iran israel escalation

Crude Oil Climbs as Geopolitical Risks Tighten Supply Outlook

Crude oil markets enter a historically strong window from June 24 to July 1, with WTI posting an average gain of 2.09% and an 80% win rate over the past 15 years. This year, seasonal momentum aligns with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strikes between Israel and Iran are increasing supply fears, especially around the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. Traders are bracing for volatility and potential price spikes.

usd/jpy seasonal weakness returns

Will Yen Bulls Charge This Summer? Watch USD/JPY as Seasonal Headwinds Build

USD/JPY has delivered negative summer returns in 18 of the past 25 years, averaging a –6.32% drop. This recurring seasonal weakness aligns with rising macroeconomic pressures, including Japanese investor repatriation and changing central bank dynamics. Technical indicators also point to potential downside, making this summer a critical period for traders watching the yen’s next move.

Can silver overcome its June drop

Silver: Seasonal Weakness Ahead – But Will Bulls Buy the Dip?

Silver has recently enjoyed a strong rally, driven by safe-haven demand and momentum across the precious metals space. However, early June has historically marked a period of weakness for silver prices, with a notable negative seasonal pattern. Silver has shown an average move of -1.66% and just a 33% win rate over the past 15 years, in this period. Still, technical and macro factors suggest the dip could be temporary.

seasonal downturn in gold: what junes track record shows

Gold Bugs: Take Note That June Is Historically the Weakest Month

Gold has been a strong performer this year, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, yet history shows June tends to be the weakest month for gold prices. According to a 25-year Seasonax study, gold averages a loss of 0.8% from June 1 to July 1, with only a 40% chance of gains during this period. This downturn is often linked to reduced physical demand and a lull in global jewelry consumption.