Giles Coghlan

Giles Coghlan

As a professional market analyst and commentator, Giles' goal is simple: to explain the current reason markets are moving the way they are so you that can make better trading decisions right now. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.

Amgen’s Amazing Seasonals 

Amgen is a multinational biopharmaceutical company that specialises in the development and manufacturing of innovative therapies to treat serious illnesses.  The company is focused on using advanced biotechnology and scientific research to address some of the most complex medical conditions,…

Nvidia: Time to fill the gap?

Last week, Nvidia witnessed a significant surge in its shares, experiencing a nearly 25% increase on Thursday.  This surge was primarily driven by optimistic market sentiment surrounding the potential for substantial gains resulting from advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology.…

Dax down?

Recently the Dax has been under pressure seeing solid days of selling on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. US debt default risk, geo-political tensions, a gloomy German IFO print, and high UK inflation likely to prompt higher rates from…

Is an Amazon dip worth buying? 

Amazon shares are in focus for Thursday with the earnings announcement coming after the close. The news from Microsoft that it’s cloud-computing business shows growth also helped expectations for Amazon which also has a large cloud business.   The seasonal moves…

Meta mistake?

Big name tech earnings are in acute focus this week and Meta (formerly Facebook) will be eyed carefully by investors for signs of where the company is heading with the so called “Metaverse’.  The Metaverse idea seemed to be peaking…

Tesla’s time?

Tesla’s earnings are due out after the close on Wednesday and there is a lot of anxiety around the stock market right now with very few holding a bullish position.  Tesla has been embarking on a large cost cutting plan…

JPMorgan peak ahead?

JPMorgan earnings are due out on Friday and the seasonal moves are quite interesting. From a seasonal perspective the stock leans towards gains in the second half of April before a much weaker period over the summer months. Analysts are…

Is Visa going places?

Higher interest rates typically benefit lenders as the higher rates can provide more margin for loans and credit repayments. Furthermore, VISA’s CFO said in January this year tha business trends are remarkably stable and that the company are planning on…

Always Coca-Cola?

As the US increasingly faces the prospect of heading into a recession one sector that investors gravitate to is consumer staples. The logic is that consumers still need to buy certain products, but that they will gravitate towards stores targeting…

AUDNZD opportunity coming up?

Next week both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet, The RBA meet early Tuesday morning on the 4th of April at 05:30 UK time and the RBNZ meet early Wednesday morning at 03:00.…

Silver surfing!

The fall in real yields alongside the fall in the USD surrounding rapid US rate re-pricing on the recent banking woes has been a great catalyst for precious metals. Gold is currently up 7% on the month and silver is…

Is Kellogg’s a recession buster?

Kellogg’s is a well known US multinational food manufacturer that is headquartered in Battle Creek, Michigan in the United States. It was known as the Kellogg company from 1922, so the firm is now over one hundred years old. Kelloggs…

Johnson and Johnson jump?

Johnson and Johnson are trying to revive their attempts to get the US supreme court to resolve tens of thousands of lawsuits over its talcum powder products through the bankruptcy of a subsidiary company. This ongoing dispute concerns allegations of…

Meta moves?

Meta has said that new WhatsApp features will begin rolling out across the world over the coming weeks. However, jobs cuts at Meta have painted a dour picture of growth for the company. In December last year jobs were cut…

Is now Nasdaq’s time?

Ever since the SVB and Credit Suisse banking crises markets have been worried about contagion fears. The question is this , ‘will the Fed change their policy path in light of the recent banking sector strains’. Furthermore, even if they…

Put Merck to work?

Merck & Co is a multinational health care US company which is based in New Jersey. Originally founded in Germany Merck is known for its development of medicines, vaccines, and biological therapies. With Goldman Sachs raising their probability of the…

BMW bounce?

BMW is expecting 20% of total sales to be from fully electric models by 2024 and expects 50% of all total sales well ahead of 2030. So, BMW’s electric shift is picking up pace and the manufacturer is looking well…

Microsoft Moves Ahead?

Since the fall out from the SVB banking crisis the moves in Microsoft have been fairly modest. Despite the larger falls in the major US indices Microsoft share prices have been fairly stable. So, there is an old saying in…

Silver set to surge?

The Fed is set to meet on Wednesday this week and speculation is growing that silver will surge on falling real yields. The logic is that the SVB crisis will send yields lower on less aggressive Fed rate expectations, but…

Huge US jobs focus for Friday!

On Friday March 10 the US will release it’s jobs report for February. In the Fed’s thinking a ‘tight’ (strong) labour market is inflationary. So, if the jobs print comes in above 325K and average hourly earnings above 4.8% the…

A Powell push?

On Wednesday March 08 Jerome Powell will give his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. This testimony is known as the ‘Humphrey-Hawkins’ testimony and it is a bi-annual report given to congress. The testimony is a…

McDonald’s Moving up into May?

McDonald’s is an American multinational fast food chain. It was founded in 1940 in California in the US. It is a US consumer discretionary corporation that has a strong seasonal patten approaching. With many analysts seeing a US recession approaching…

S&P500 Set for gains on Friday?

In this video, Giles outlines the different risk events that traders can search for using Seasonax’s risk event tool! This is a fantastic tool for searching a whole range of known market moving events. On Friday the US ISM Non-Manufacturing…

Best Buy Beat

Best Buy is an American multinational consumer electronics retailer with its HQ in California. Best Buy sells a variety of different electronic goods from phones, video games, computers, and a variety of appliances. However, with some early signs this week…

Salesforce Selling?

Salesforce is an American cloud based software provider that has its headquarters in San Francisco, California. The company has cloud based applications that focuses on e-commerce, analytics, customer relationships and application developments. As future earnings move into focus with the…

Coke ready to fizz in March?

Coca-Cola is a well known blue chip US stock that can tend towards gains during recessions. As a consumer staple the thinking goes that most western consumers can still afford a soft drink even though times are tighter. So how…

Booking Holdings a sell?

Booking holdings announce their earnings release after the close on Thursday and that means there could be some volatile trading into the end of the week. Booking Holdings is the world’s number one when it comes to online travel. It…

FED Minutes Move

The FOMC minutes are due out at 1900 UK time on Wednesday. Since the very strong NFP print on February 03 economic data has been leading markets away from the idea of a Fed pause. More and more analyst are…

Is Hilton going higher?

Some stocks show particular surges around earnings releases and Hilton is one stock that has done very well in the month of February.  Hilton Worldwide is an American multinational hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and…

Stuck on 3M?

3M is a US company which manufacturers and distributes a wide range of industrial products and solutions.  It originally started as a small scale mining venture, but has now grown to a manufacturer of over 60,000 3M products found in many…

Platinum play?

Platinum tends to see gains around the start of the year as Industrial purchases are made for the year from 2022. Yes, global growth concerns have been growing, but many company orders for 2023 would have already been made and…

Time for a bite of the Apple?

Apple has fallen around 20% from it’s highs, and earnings are due out on Thursday.   Apple has a few tricks it is trying right now to grab consumers attention.  Apple is working on a cheaper mixed reality headset and introduced the…

Tesla’s Time to Turn?

Since the high of 2021 Tesla’s share price has dropped over 60% as investors fled rate sensitive tech companies on expectations of tougher financial conditions ahead.  The question now is, ‘will the US manage a soft landing’ and potentially be able…

Can IBM find support from earnings?

The International Business Machines Corporation is an American multinational company operating in over 175 countries with its headquarters in New York.  It’s the seventh largest technology company by revenue. Recently Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from an overweight rating to equal…

Is Bayer a buy?

Bayer AG shares surged higher on Tuesday this week on news that the German company forecast its peak sale of pharmaceuticals to €12 billion. Bayer forecast that its thrombosis treatment asundexian could bring in more than €5 billion. Revenue from…

Go for Gold?

The outlook for gold has been improving since the US10Y bond yield appeared to cap out around the 4.35% region at the end of October last year. The USD also gave up its September high high too last year adding…

All in for Alibaba?

Some investors have been cautious over investing in China’s tech stocks. However, recent comments from the party secretary of the People’s Bank of China that the tech sector’s heavy clampdown is coming to an end has given investors some confidence…

USD softness into year end!

Another really notable trend around this time of the year is USD weakness. This is due to some taxation reasons that regularly sees USD flows out of parent US companies into daughter companies around year end. So, the USD does…

Go for Gilead?

The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday was as expected with a 50 bps hike. However, the summary of economic projections dot plot showed a higher path of interest rates that would be held for longer. The peak rates projected by…

Disney magic at Christmas?

There has recently been a string of news for Walt Disney Shares. Walt Disney cruise line is set to return to tropical destinations in the Bahamas, Caribbean, & Mexico in early 2024. Furthermore, Shanghai Disneyland was due to re-open on…

All in for Allianz?

Allianz is a German multinational financial services company with its headquarters in Munich Germany. The heart of its business revolves around insurance and asset management. Is an increase in inflationary pressures good news for Allianz who will be able to…

US oil

US oil has some mixed drivers right now. The OPEC+ production cuts had been providing some support for oil alongside a weaker USD. Furthermore, the announcement of a 16 point property support plan for China could prop up more expectations…

Disney Earnings

Walt Disney earnings are due after today’s close and investors will be watching for news of how their Disney+ subscription service has been doing. Have Disney+ managed to eat into Netflix and Amazon Prime’s margins? Disney already have more subscribers…

Time in vs Timing the Market

Seasonax is a tool that suits short, medium, and long term traders. Trying to time the market is a significant challenge that even professional investors struggle with. So, there are a couple of simple points that can help with those…

Fed: To buy or not to buy

To borrow a phrase from a soliloquy in Shakespeare’s Prince Hamlet, ‘To pause or not to pause’, is the question investors have been toying with coming into Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Analysts are generally quite divided on what the Fed will…