NZDUSD’s interesting seasonals

The RBNZ met last night and announced that they would be continuing holding rates at 5.50% for the foreseeable future. Although broadly happy with domestic labour and inflation readings they still note the potential for inflation to surprise them, particularly with core inflation remaining sticky around the world*.  

The NZDUSD pair has a really interesting seasonal pattern during the next two months. It really is a game of two halves. July is the second strongest month for the NZUSD and August is the weakest for the NZDUSD over the last 15 years.  

From July 13 – July 29 the NZDUSD pair has gained 66.67% of the time with an 0.71% average return. However, from the 31st July to 31st of August the NZDUSD pair has fallen just under 75% of the time with an average fall of 2%. So, what is ahead for the NZDUSD? Will these twin seasonal patterns play out this year? 

Major Trade Risks: 
Previous seasonal patterns do not play out every year, and don’t forget  that the US rate path will also strongly impact the NZDUSD.  

Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it! 

*See the RBNZ’s full statement here.