25. Jul 2018
Through our Seasonal Insights and Seasonax Application you have been discovering a world of seasonalities among different market instruments for quite some time.
Hopefully our work has led to increasing investment opportunities and profits throughout your portfolio. But we haven’t stopped there! Our German partner company Seasonax Capital GmbH has undertaken another groundbreaking step and launched an investment fund with an innovative strategy based on seasonal patterns.
Our head analyst Dimitri Speck's main goal over the past years was to find regular, predictable and recurring seasonal patterns and to implement them into a new fund that would stand for an innovative and unique way of investing.
We have been working on identifying trends of single stocks that have a high statistical probability of reappearing. Based on these trends, I have tried to come up with an investment strategy that captures profits over the course of the whole calendar year.
The strategic approach
In order to profit from seasonal patterns for the whole year, it is necessary to identify sufficient seasonally profitable stocks. Not only indices but also single stocks exhibit these patterns – often at different times of the year. Therefore, it is paramount to evaluate vast historical data for each stock and apply my algorithms to precisely identify and analyze each title and come up with a selection of stocks.
The following example shows the two stocks of Novo Nordisk and Adidas. Their strongest periods during the course of the year do not compete but rather complement each other perfectly.
Novo Nordisk, seasonal average over the last 15 years.
Adidas, seasonal average over the last 15 years
Two sides of the same coin
My team combines several years of specialized experience in different sectors relevant to our strategy and can thus contribute their knowledge of previous jobs in global financial centers. In fact, we have used the past years to meticulously study and analyze the results of our application on Bloomberg Professional and Thomson Reuters Eikon. By cooperating with our clients for feedback as well as being avid users of the application ourselves, we could develop our new innovative investment strategy based on seasonality of individual stocks.
Avoiding methodological mistakes
Despite years of groundwork in the field of seasonality, the identification and parametrization of the right influencing factors have been very challenging. A simple back calculation would have resulted in wrong conclusions. The unique combination of walk forward and out-of-sample calculations we have employed, results in a strong robustness of the results. Furthermore, the large number of signals reduces the probabilities for the results to be random. This approach works in different market environments (bullish/bearish or sideways), different regions (East to West), sectors and even different time periods.
Seasonax Market Neutral makes its debut
“Seasonax Market Neutral” is live since 2nd July.
The fund has been approved by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). Other than myself, Christoph Zenk and Tea Muratovic are also managing directors, being responsible of Marketing and Sales respectively.
The Seasonax Market Neutral pursues an Absolute Return Strategy and invests in a global selection of stocks, while simultaneously hedging the investments through stock index futures or similar instruments. The goal of the investment strategy of the Seasonax Market Neutral Fund is to create a stable and positive increase in value, independent of the market environment.
Within Seasonax Market Neutral fund two different asset classes have been brought to life, one for our private investors (ISIN: DE000A2JF8T0) and one for the institutional clients (ISIN:DE000A2JF8U8).
Fund Data for the institutional class.
Source: Seasonax Capital
As you can see, a lot of things are moving forward in the field of seasonal investment and we are incredibly excited to be part of this dynamic and fast-moving environment. Find out more about the fund at seasonax-capital.com.
We know that even our most meticulous calculations won’t give us any guarantees – but we can certainly let the probabilities work in our favor!