All eyes on US labour data after softer US inflation print last Friday

On Friday the latest jobs data will be released for the US and it will be in major focus. Remember, the Fed has a twin mandate: to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable. So, with inflation moving in the right direction with the latest PCE print. This means that a weak jobs print here could increase expectations of a Fed rate cut. This could give the S&P500 a nice boost higher. This is also where the Seasonax event feature is so helpful. In the last 4 years the S&P500 has moves up on average on the day before and after the US report. Furthermore, we have also seen times when the gains have exceeded 2%, So, this helps set expectations. The maximum gain was on June 04 2022 with a 3.86% gain. However, there have also been large losses – with a number of falls greater than 3% too – so there really is some strong 2 way action around this event – it’s certainly not one to miss!

The weaker US PCE print last Friday has meant the Fed’s labour mandate can take more of a focus with the reading coming in as expected, not showing a tick higher, and the m/m reading slightly lower than expected.

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The major trade risk here is to be aware that the S&P500 volatility is directly linked to the extent of the surprise that is or is not seen in the US labour print.

Remember, don’t just trade it Seasonax It!