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Why the Australian Dollar May Struggle in Late April

AUD/USD: Seasonal Weakness Aligns With Tariff Risk

The Australian dollar often faces seasonal weakness from April 21 to May 23.This pattern could be further stressed by rising trade tensions and renewed protectionist rhetoric from the US. The AUD, being sensitive to global trade flows and commodity demand, is particularly exposed to any escalation in tariffs, especially those involving China. If risk appetite deteriorates, further downside in AUDUSD is likely. However, surprises in Chinese stimulus or a softer Fed outlook could shift the tide.

April 22, 2025
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Can the AUDUSD soar on dovish fed hopes?

The latest PPI data this week out of the US was hot and the US CPI yesterday was mildly firmer than markets were expecting. However, recent more dovish Fed rhetoric has increased expectations of the Fed reaching peak rates.

October 13, 2023
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AUS inflation data could push the AUDUSD lower

Inflation data is a major focus for the Reserve Bank of Australia and a headline that prints below 5.8% and a trimmed mean below 5.9% will surprise markets and reassure the RBA that inflation is moving lower and would give the RBA confidence to remain on hold for rates.

July 24, 2023
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