EUR/USD

The seasonal pattern for EUR/USD from May 29 to June 6 favors euro strength, with a 78.57% win rate and +1.14% average return. This year, the “Sell USD” narrative may gain traction as Moody’s downgrade and China’s reduced Treasury exposure highlight US fiscal concerns. The pair nears key resistance levels that could trigger another leg higher. However, risks remain if the Fed turns hawkish or economic data surprises. The seasonal setup offers timely insight into current macro trends.

EUR/USD tends to show reliable strength from May 23 to June 7. Over the past 10 years, the pair has posted positive returns in 8 of them, averaging a gain of +1.00%. With macro tailwinds and recent price action consolidating near 1.1200, bulls may be eyeing a breakout. Technically, the 1.130 level is within reach if support at 1.1150 holds. However, traders should remain alert to Fed rhetoric and US inflation data that could disrupt the seasonal pattern.

The EUR/USD pair historically underperforms in May, and this year appears to be no different. With an average decline of -0.96% between May 5 and May 30 over the past 15 years, and a low win rate of just 33.33% for bullish moves, the odds are stacked against the euro. Technically, 1.1200 is the key battleground, as the euro tests both horizontal resistance and a long-term breakout. Meanwhile, macro factors such as ECB-Fed divergence and weak eurozone growth only add to the downside risk.

EUR/USD has a strong seasonal track record from March 10 to March 17, with gains 75% of the time with an annualized return of +32.26%. Yield spreads and fiscal policies could further support the euro’s strength, while technical signals point to a potential breakout. However, key risks such as US inflation data and Fed policy shifts could introduce volatility.

Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.