Will Tesla Break Through Key Weekly Support On Weaker Earnings

For some time now there have been some significant risks growing for Tesla as we approach their latest earnings after the close on Tuesday.

Competing with established car manufacturers poses several risks for Tesla which critics have long cautioned against exuberance with Tesla stock. As more traditional automakers enter the electric vehicle (EV) market, there’s a risk of increased competition and market saturation. This could lead to price wars and reduced profit margins for Tesla. Established automakers may leverage their existing brand recognition and customer loyalty to gain an advantage over Tesla. Customers who are loyal to brands like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, or Audi may be less inclined to switch to Tesla. Related to this other car manufacturers are investing heavily in electric vehicle technology and autonomous driving systems. If they develop superior technology or innovations that outperform Tesla’s offerings, it could erode Tesla’s market share and competitive edge. Think of Toyota’s recently announced battery progress. Also, look how China is asserting itself on the EV market.

Finally, traditional automakers have decades of experience in mass production, which gives them an advantage in scaling up production and reducing costs. If Tesla can’t keep up with production demands or match the efficiency of larger manufacturers, it could struggle to compete. Tesla will most likely have to keep reducing costs to  keep up with the competition.

So, with this being said, how will Tesla’s earnings on Tuesday match up to this risks? Seasonally, we are heading into a weak period with falls over 70% of the time between April 22 and May 20 over the last 14 years.

Technically, price is moving into a key weekly trend line. A clean break of this level would be technically significant and likely encourage momentum sellers. See the region around 140 on the chart below.

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  • The major trade risk here is that previous seasonal patterns don’t necessarily repeat themselves each year.

Remember, don’t just trade it Seasonax It!