- Instrument: Silver (BCOMSI)
- Average Pattern Move: -1.66%
- Timeframe: June 3 – June 30
- Winning Percentage: 33.33%
Dear Investor,
Silver prices have enjoyed a powerful rally recently, spurred on by safe-haven demand, falling real yields, and a bullish breakout in precious metals broadly. But you may not realize that early June has historically been one of the weakest seasonal periods for silver – and we want to analyze the data in more detail.
The chart shows you the typical development of silver prices between June 3 and June 30 over the last 15 years. The seasonal pattern is weak, with a -20.24% annualized return and just 5 winning years out of 15. However, this seasonal dip could be setting up a classic opportunity for the bulls.
The Technical Case for Support
Despite seasonal weakness, the technical picture tells a more constructive story. Silver recently posted a bullish piercing line pattern on the weekly chart, bouncing strongly off major support near the 200 EMA and $30/oz. This key zone has acted as a demand shelf, attracting strong buying interest in April and May.
Price is currently holding above the $30–$31 range and consolidating below the April/May highs. As long as silver remains above $30, dip buyers may see this upcoming seasonal pullback as a healthy correction in a broader bullish trend.
Macro Flows Still Supportive
While short-term seasonals point to weakness, silver remains supported by macro tailwinds:
- Central bank gold buying often boosts sentiment for silver.
- U.S. fiscal fears continue to drive precious metal inflows.
- A falling USD could lift commodities broadly in Q3.
With risk-off pressures still simmering and the inflation-versus-recession debate unresolved, silver may remain in demand as an alternative store of value.
Trade Risks:
The moves in silver may very much depend on macro sentiment, positioning, and any USD volatility. There’s strong event risk around US data and Fed pricing, and many investors prefer to avoid trading into volatile dips without clear confirmation.
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