Copper’s Seasonal Dip Played Out. What Comes Next?
Copper's summer weakness has played out as the data suggested. Now the seasonal window turns bullish, but history shows the rally rarely comes without a pullback first.
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Read MoreCopper’s Seasonal Dip Played Out. What Comes Next?
Copper Seasonality Turns Weak: The Structural Bull Case Remains Intact
Copper's weakest seasonal window is here. History shows an average drop of 4.11% from late May to early August, with a win rate of just 26.67%. Here's why that matters for longer-term investors, and how seasonal weakness could set up the next entry point in a powerful structural bull market.
Platinum: A Seasonal Surge into February!
Platinum has delivered one of the strongest recurring winter seasonal patterns in precious metals, averaging nearly +8% from early December into February with an 84% historical win rate. This Q1 bias aligns with three consecutive years of projected market deficits and sustained physical tightness. Seasonality and structural scarcity continue to reinforce a compelling tactical and macro investment case.
Silver: A Seasonal Pop Incoming as Hedge Fund Positioning Peaks?
Silver typically shows strength from July 17 to July 31, delivering a 1.59% average return with a 64% win rate over the past 25 years. With hedge fund positioning stretched and open interest hitting critical highs, the market may be on the verge of a breakout.
After the Strong Rise: What’s Next for Gold?
Gold typically enters its strongest seasonal phase in the second half of the year, with consistent gains driven by rising jewelry demand. Over the past 25 years, it has delivered an average return of nearly 10% during this period, making seasonality a powerful factor to consider when investing in gold.
Silver: Will Seasonal Strength Spark a Summer Surge?
Silver tends to perform strongly during the summer, and the historical data backs it up. From June 30 to September 1, silver (XAG/USD) has shown a consistent seasonal pattern of strength over the past 15 years, with a strong risk/reward profile. This seasonal trend, combined with a bullish technical setup, suggests potential upside toward $37–$38 if momentum holds.
Crude Oil Climbs as Geopolitical Risks Tighten Supply Outlook
Crude oil markets enter a historically strong window from June 24 to July 1, with WTI posting an average gain of 2.09% and an 80% win rate over the past 15 years. This year, seasonal momentum aligns with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strikes between Israel and Iran are increasing supply fears, especially around the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. Traders are bracing for volatility and potential price spikes.
Soybean Slide: Will China & US Tensions Enhance the Seasonal Slump?
From mid-June to early October, soybeans have posted losses in 11 of the past 14 years, averaging a -4.87% decline. With a win rate of just 21.43%, it’s one of the weakest seasonal periods. In 2025, trade tensions and weak Chinese demand could intensify this trend. Without a shift in trade dynamics, further downside is likely.
Gold’s June Drag: Will Seasonal Weakness Pull Prices Back?
June has historically been a challenging month for gold. Data shows a consistent drop between June 6 and July 6, with an average decline of -1.46% and gains in just 28% of years. This weakness often aligns with lower physical demand and subdued trading activity. While a recent breakout may appear bullish, seasonal trends still warrant caution.
Silver: Seasonal Weakness Ahead – But Will Bulls Buy the Dip?
Silver has recently enjoyed a strong rally, driven by safe-haven demand and momentum across the precious metals space. However, early June has historically marked a period of weakness for silver prices, with a notable negative seasonal pattern. Silver has shown an average move of -1.66% and just a 33% win rate over the past 15 years, in this period. Still, technical and macro factors suggest the dip could be temporary.
Gold Bugs: Take Note That June Is Historically the Weakest Month
Gold has been a strong performer this year, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, yet history shows June tends to be the weakest month for gold prices. According to a 25-year Seasonax study, gold averages a loss of 0.8% from June 1 to July 1, with only a 40% chance of gains during this period. This downturn is often linked to reduced physical demand and a lull in global jewelry consumption.