- Instrument: EUR/USD
- Average Pattern Move: +1.00%
- Timeframe: 23 May – 7 June
- Winning Percentage: 80.00%
Dear Investor,
You may not realize that late May and early June have historically favored euro bulls. With EUR/USD pinned near the 1.1200 area and upside momentum building, this could be a window worth watching — and we want to analyze the data in more detail.
The chart below shows you the typical development of EUR/USD between May 23 and June 7 over the last 10 years. The pair has risen in 8 of those 10 years, with an average return of +1.00% and a maximum rise of +3.65%. While the gains are not dramatic, the consistency and directional edge suggest a reliable seasonal bias during this period.
Macro Tailwinds Building
This seasonal tendency aligns well with recent macro dynamics. The euro has been resilient despite a modest downgrade in Q1 GDP from 0.4% to 0.3%, and industrial production has surprised to the upside. ECB speakers have largely coalesced around the expectation of two rate cuts in 2025, and markets are pricing this in with little resistance from policymakers. This includes dovish figures like Villeroy as well as hawks such as Knot and Kazaks. With the Fed seeing inflation relatively benign for now there is room for flexibility and no great urgency to hike rates in the near term, so some further USD weakness is not unreasonable.
Technical Perspective
Technically, the 1.110/1.120 zone marked below on the weekly chart remains a solid anchor for the pair, but the bias favors testing 1.130 rather than slipping to 1.110 if price can hold above the 1.1150 region on a weekly closing basis.
Trade Risks
EUR/USD may remain sensitive to shifting US inflation expectations and Fed rhetoric. A surprise upside in US CPI or soft eurozone data could stall bullish momentum. Additionally, geopolitical moves could temporarily strengthen the dollar, disrupting the seasonal pattern.
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