Short-term interest rate markets currently see a 100% chance of the ECB keeping rates unchanged On October the 26th meeting. The terminal rate is seen as being around the current level of 4%. The question is will the ECB recognise that perhaps they need to look at when they will cut rates? With headline inflation still well above the ECB’s target calls for cuts will be premature, and rising oil prices are inflationary pressures, but watch the EURUSD into the meeting. If the USD starts following the move in yields higher the EURUSD pair could see weakness heading into the ECB meeting.
The reaction of the EURUSD on the day before and on the day of the meeting shows a bias towards selling. Over the last 15 years, the US dollar pair has lost value over 55% of the time with a maximum fall of 3.47% in 2011.
Major Trade Risks:
The major trade risk here is if the ECB give a more hawkish message that will likely support the EURUSD higher. Also any unexpected USD weakness can support the EURUSD pair
Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!