Two of the strongest months for gold tend to be January and August. However, over the last 25 years, the weakest month for gold has been March.
The early bounce in gold around the turn of the month has largely been on a retracement in the USD and yields after heavy re-pricing on Fed rates. However, the outlook moving forward for gold is likely to continue to reflect the path of US rates.
Aggressive Fed hiking expectations, especially if Fed speakers start to talk about rates at 6%, would likely pressure gold further.
This could be enhanced by the seasonally weak month for gold as outlined in the video above.
Major Trade Risks:
The major trade risk here is that the Fed slow the path of rates and that could boost gold as the USD weakens and yields fall.
Remember, don’t just trade it, but Seasonax it!