Meta Miss Ahead?

Meta earnings are due out after the close on Wednesday and their seasonal bias into month end has a distinctly dour outlook.

From the start of the year Meta has gained over 150% and  it’s return has only fallen behind Nvidia. Meta’s earnings and guidance surprised to the upside for the first and second quarters of 2023, but will that run come to an end this week? The company provided Q3 revenue guidance of between $32 – $34.5 billion which is still showing a greater than 10% y/y revenue rise.  

Over the last 11 years Meta has lost value around 75% of the time from between October 25 and November 03. The average loss has been 6.41% with the maximum fall coming last year with a 35% drop. So, if there is a miss in the earnings report watch out for an outsized move lower. 

Major Trade Risks: 

The major trade risk here is if Meta’s earnings and forward guidance are more positive than markets are expecting.  

Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!