Interview: "It is important to stay open minded"

NEWS SEASONAX IN THE MEDIA
Feb 02, 2018

As a technical analyst at Raiffeisen Bank International Stefan Memmer covers a broad range of assets, especially stock indices and fixed income markets. Today, he is sharing some of his financial expertise with us. Enjoy the interview!

 

1. What is the most exciting task within your job and why?

Most of my analysis and predictions are based on different time frames; hence, it is crucial to combine weekly or daily patterns and indicators to get an idea about Intraday movements. This way of reasoning requires lateral thinking. However, markets are moving fast and it is very exciting to consistently re-evaluate situations and to consider alternatives.

Seasonality is an important topic when it comes to evaluate cycles on different time frame. Almost every day there are a couple of announcements to which the markets react strongly. Hence, it is quite helpful to figure out some kind of “average” pattern before and after such announcements, in addition to compare this to the on-going movements. And Seasonax is a great tool to identify different recurring patterns but also to sustain my analytical reasoning.

 

2. What are most common pitfalls in technical analysis? 

Often people pay too much attention to single patterns or they are getting stuck to a methodology and in turn overemphasizing respective outcomes. In my opinion, it is important to stay open minded and to think about what might be behind the charts. Moreover, asset classes are strongly interconnected which unfortunately tends to remain disregarded by some analysts. 

 

3. Does your gut feeling play a big role in suggesting the potential lucrative trades?

Besides indicators and rule based methods, experience plays an important role in discretionary technical analysis. Finally, whatever indicators are trying state by combining their messages I rely on my gut feeling.

 

4. Teach us something in the next minute

With regard to TA I have only one suggestion: learning by doing.

 

Blitz questions:

Dark background or light?
Definitely light.

Intraday or Intrayear?
Both are important, but I would prefer Intraday.

Favourite event study?
FOMC meeting.

Favourite seasonal chart?
Definitely, Christmas rally. Provides some good sentiment to finish the year.

Most used seasonal pattern?
Sell in May and…. Commonly, the first two summer volatility figures are suppressed and it is difficult to give a strong call. However, this seasonal effect has been shifted a little.