- Instrument: Novo Nordisk A/S
- Average Pattern Move: +2.06%
- Timeframe: 17 May – 11 June
- Winning Percentage: 80.00%
Dear Investor,
You may not realize that shares of Novo Nordisk have delivered strong gains between mid-May and early June over the last decade — and with the stock under pressure after a trimmed forecast, this year’s seasonal window could be setting up a timely bounce. We want to analyze the data in more detail.
The chart above shows you the typical development of Novo Nordisk’s share price between May 17 and June 11 over the past 10 years. The stock has posted a +2.06% average return over this period, with a high 80% win rate, making it one of the more consistent bullish seasonal trades in the large-cap healthcare space.
Why focus on this window now?
- Fundamentals Reset: Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 sales and profit forecasts due to Wegovy’s underperformance and growing US competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and pipeline weight-loss pills like orforglipron.
- Sentiment Weakens, But Not Broken: While sales disappointed, Q1 profit actually beat expectations — suggesting the recent drawdown may be more sentiment-driven than fundamental.
- Technical Bounce Setup: The stock is attempting to base near 61 EUR after a steep correction. A close above the 65–66 zone could confirm a local bottom, especially if the seasonal pattern kicks in.
What’s the upside?
- The 17 May – 11 June period has produced positive returns 8 out of the past 10 years, with gains as high as +10.26%.
- The mean reversion from oversold levels coinciding with improving visibility on US access (e.g., via CVS and telehealth deals) may catalyze fresh inflows.
Trade Risks
The key risks to this bullish outlook include further margin compression from discounting, ongoing loss of US market share to Lilly, and failure of the FDA to meaningfully enforce against compounding pharmacies. (If a drug is on the FDA’s shortage list, US compounding pharmacies are allowed to replicate it — even if it’s normally protected by patent).
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