There is longstanding Wall St. saying which says to, ‘Sell in May, and Go Away’. This is because summer has a reputation for being a weak time for US stocks. So, does that mean a summer slide is ahead for US stocks this year?
Taking a look at the seasonal pattern for the S&P500 between August 01 and October 01. Over the last 15 years the S&P500 has fallen around 50% of the time for an average fall of 1.80%. Although it has been 50/50 whether the S&P500 falls through this time the extent of the falls have been notable. In 2011 the S&P500 fell nearly 15%, in 2022 it fell 10.69%, and in 2015 a 8.30% fall.
Will the S&P500 see similar falls again this year between Aug 01 and Oct 01?
Major Trade Risks:
Note that previous seasonal patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves each year.
Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!