The Nasdaq 100 historically enters a powerful bullish window with a 93.33% win rate over the past 15 years and an average gain of 3.86%. This setup has proven highly consistent. Fueled by strong Q2 earnings and lower summer volume, this period offers a high-probability opportunity for traders. If the pattern holds, we could see another clean move higher before August volatility sets in.
Many investors are familiar with the phrase “Sell in May and go away,” but the Nasdaq 100 often defies that logic. Over the past decade, the tech-heavy index has delivered an average return of +3.40% from May 19 to June 7, with a remarkable 90% win rate. Strong seasonal momentum, driven by optimism in AI and supportive macro factors, continues to offer opportunities. Recent technical indicators also support a bullish setup.
As the February 12 CPI release approaches, traders brace for volatility in the Nasdaq 100. With inflation expectations rising and Fed Chair Powell set to speak, the index faces a pivotal moment. However, historical seasonality tells a different story—showing an 87.69% annualized return and a 65% win rate around CPI events.
The Nasdaq 100 exhibits a bearish seasonal trend around Nonfarm Payroll releases, with a -5.02% annualized return and high volatility. Losses tend to outweigh gains, making risk management crucial.
The Nasdaq is know for its sensitivity to Fed interest rates. The growth orientated stocks in the Nasdaq often rely heavily on borrowing to finance their operations and higher interest rates can make their margins tighter.
The Nasdaq has a weak seasonal time of the year into the middle of March over the last 25 years. Despite having a winning seasonal outlook form a percentage point of view - the average decline is nearly 1.5% from Jan 18th through to March 13
There’s been a huge amount of flows into the tech sector this year, according to Deutsche Bank AG who see over $40 billion in cumulative global flows. However, with the Fed signalling higher rates for longer in last weeks meeting…
The Federal reserve took a more hawkish tone in their latest rate meeting revising up the dot plot seeing higher interest rates in 2024 and beyond. The NASDAQ is typically sensitive to US rate increases, and this provides a natural…
Dollar Tree will announce its earnings before the open on Thursday which makes it a good time to look at the seasonal pattern for the stock. Dollar Tree is a discount variety store in the US with a large chain…
Over the last 25 years the two strongest months have been in July and October. However, the weakest months come in February, August, and September.
