- Instrument: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Average Pattern Move: +12.38%
- Timeframe: June 10 – September 1
- Winning Percentage: 86.67%
Dear Investor,
Despite regulatory clouds, tariff concerns, and a race to catch up in AI, you may not know that Apple may be poised for a seasonal bounce. Historically, the company has delivered impressive gains through the summer months, and technical signals suggest strong monthly support. We want to analyze the data in more detail.
Seasonal Setup
The chart shows you the typical development of Apple’s share price between June 10 and September 1 over the past 15 years. On average, the stock has returned +12.38% during this window with a strong 86.67% win rate. That level of consistency, combined with strong average performance, suggests this period is one of Apple’s most favorable seasonal windows.
Technical Perspective
The monthly chart shows a potential hammer reversal from April—a sign of potential exhaustion in the recent decline. Price has since stabilised, and the current $170–$180 range may offer a technical base for a fresh move higher.
With Apple’s Worldwide Developers’ Conference this week on June 09 and the company expected to showcase its long-awaited AI roadmap, the seasonal pattern could coincide with renewed bullish sentiment.
Macro Crosscurrents
Apple’s challenges are well documented:
- Tariff pressures ($900M impact forecast this quarter)
- App Store revenue model under legal fire
- Weak Chinese iPhone sales
- AI leadership slipping behind rivals
Despite these, Apple’s execution historically shines when the spotlight is brightest. If Tim Cook delivers an AI surprise at today’s WWDC or the iPhone 17 cycle impresses this summer, the market may quickly recalibrate its expectations.
Trade Risks:
The upside depends on Apple’s WWDC announcements, macro sentiment, and investor reaction to AI developments. Delays, weak guidance, or unexpected regulatory escalation may reduce or eliminate the usual seasonal upside.
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