Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
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Crude oil prices are facing significant pressure this quarter, driven by China’s economic slowdown and signs of ample supply. WTI crude oil has experienced a notable seasonal downtrend during the period from September 17 to November 30.
As we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting the seasonal data suggests a typical pattern where stocks tend to rally leading into the Fed’s second meeting day but often decline afterward. The S&P 500 has experienced losses during this specific…
The British pound is under pressure as traders brace for potential rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE). Historically, rate cuts have led to a significant decline in GBP The seasonal data supports this trend, showing an annualized return…
The Federal Reserve is on the brink of initiating a rate-cutting cycle, with short-term interest rate (STIR) markets pricing in four full rate cuts by year-end. For this to unfold, one of the remaining three Fed meetings must deliver a…
Currency strategists are increasingly bullish on the Japanese yen following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate hike in July and the Federal Reserve's signal of upcoming rate cuts. Previously, many experts expected the yen to weaken further after a significant decline in the first half of the year.
The S&P 500 tends to underperform in September, showing negative returns and higher risk metrics. It tends to be a weak month for returns and over the last 10 years it has been the weakest month. The selected pattern (1st September to 30th September) shows a significant negative annualized return of -23.24%.In contrast
Will the S&P500 run up higher into the NFP jobs print on Friday? From a seasonal perspective this is the pattern. Using Seasonax’s risk event feature we can see the following. The strategy shows a strong +48.89% annualized return with…
The weakest month of the year for the FTSE 100 is September. From 1 September - 30 September, over the last 25 years the pattern shows a significant negative annualized return of -19.8%. Despite the negative trend, there is still a 48% win rate, indicating nearly half of the September months recorded gains.
As we approach Nvidia Corp.'s highly anticipated earnings report (Wednesday Aug 28), market watchers are bracing for another standout performance. The consensus among analysts points to a significant beat, with expectations running so high that it is thought Nvidia may raise its profit outlook.
The seasonal chart for the EURUSD is painting a picture of EURUSD downside ahead, with some outsized falls seasonally recorded in the pair. Over the last 24 years the pair has had falls over 3% three times. The largest fall…
