Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
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Can Barratt Developments and Persimmon Plc capitalize on Labour’s housing reforms and seasonal trends? With seasonal returns exceeding 6% for both housebuilders in December-February, the alignment of policy and performance creates a unique opportunity for investors.
The Nasdaq, dominated by rate-sensitive tech stocks, faces unique challenges around Federal Reserve meetings. Historical data shows a tendency for negative returns, with an annualized return of -40.94% on Fed announcement days. While rate cuts provide some relief, they don’t always guarantee sustained gains.
EasyJet’s announcement to double its dividend follows a record-breaking summer and booming holiday demand. Historically, the airline has shown strong seasonal performance between December and February, with an 80% win rate and an average return of +9.23%. Will this winter align with past trends and support its dividend strategy?
A sharp move lower in the GDP print should mean that the GBP falls on expectations of the Bank of England needing to move more quickly to interest rate cuts to support a struggling economy. Looking at Seasonax’s event feature you can see the sort of moves that can be expected in the event of a big miss. The largest drop was 1.88% in September 2024, when the UK GDP missed expectations.
WTI Crude Oil demonstrates a compelling seasonal pattern between December and early March, historically yielding an annualised return of +39.26% over the last 25 years. The average gain of +7.85% during this period, coupled with a 72% win rate, highlights the winter season as a favourable window for oil price appreciation.
Germany's business outlook worsened in November, with the Ifo index dropping to 85.7, lower than expected, due to political instability and concerns over potential US trade tariffs under a Trump re-election. The country faces a second consecutive year of contraction, compounded by weak industrial and automotive sectors. However, consumption remains a bright spot.
The US labor market shows signs of broader weakness, with October's non-farm payrolls missing expectations. A weaker NFP report could strengthen the case for a December Fed rate cut, potentially boosting EURUSD. Seasonax’s event feature helps traders set precise targets ahead of big data points like this.
Over the last 10 years the Nasdaq has returned an average of -0.90% over the first 2 days of December. The so called ‘turn on the month effect’ does tend to be positive for stocks, but the Nasdaq bucks this trend around the turn of December showing a 70% losing bias over the last 10 years.
Nvidia unveiled strong fiscal Q3 results, with a 94% revenue jump to $35.1 billion, driven by AI-fueled demand for its chips. However, its forecast for Q4 sales of $37.5 billion fell short of some Wall Street expectations. The launch of its new Blackwell chips has strained margins, though production is ramping up to meet high demand.
With President Elect Trump expected to run inflationary policies that draw heavily on tariffs imposed on China and other countries the base expectation is for more USD strength. However, this narrative is a consensus view and if Donald Trump surprises everyone with a more conciliatory view to world trade that could result in a swift rise in the EURUSD pair.
