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One of the interesting features of Seasonax is being able to look at the impact of the time of the month on various instruments. It can be surprising to note that there are significant changes in the behaviour of stocks, commodities, and indices, depending on what time of the month it is!
On Tuesday February the 13th US CPI inflation data will be announced for the month of January. Will the recent disinflationary trend be confirmed? The latest US CPI revisions on Friday are considered to be pointing towards a continued fall in US inflation, but how will markets react to Tuesday’s print?
Disney’s earnings are due out on Thursday after the close, but the seasonals show that there is a particular weak period for Disney’s shares from the middle of February to around the middle of March.
Will Pepsi’s earnings be hit by the Middle East crisis? In the Middle East and beyond, into Pakistan, large multinational brands like Pepsi and Coca-Cola have faced boycotts due to the ongoing impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
There are mixed driver’s for oil right now. Middle East tensions mean the risk of contagion on the region could impede global oil supply. An Iranian involvement in the Gaza/Israel conflict could send oil sharply higher.
Over the last 8 years February has been the weakest month of the year for PayPal, closely followed by September. Furthermore, some of the falls have been double digit plunges in PayPal’s share price, so watch out for some significant volatility after the close with PayPal’s earnings due to be released.
The strong seasonal trend in oil prices is well known amongst seasonal traders and, at first glance, it is quite interesting to see the contrasting seasonals of ExxonMobil which is one of the world's largest publicly traded international oil and gas companies. Initially it seems that it has a ‘stop & drop’ seasonal pattern.
With so many uncertainties ahead of the Fed meeting it can be very helpful to see the reaction of the S&P500 over the last 5 years out of Fed meetings! The bias for heavier selling is clearly there, so this can help frame expectations on a surprise hawkish decision.
Microsoft announce their earnings this week after the close on Tuesday and the earnings are worth looking at closely. Over the last 25 years Microsoft’s seasonals are very weak during the upcoming period.
This week stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China saw snap gains on reports that the government might provide support. There are reports about a huge fund (worth about 2 trillion Chinese Yuan or around $278 billion) to stabilise the markets. This intervention was not unexpected as stock prices were getting close to the lowest point in 2022.
