Is Oil Poised To Surge?
There are mixed driver’s for oil right now. Middle East tensions mean the risk of contagion on the region could impede global oil supply. An Iranian involvement in the Gaza/Israel conflict could send oil sharply higher.
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February Is PayPal’s Weakest Month
Over the last 8 years February has been the weakest month of the year for PayPal, closely followed by September. Furthermore, some of the falls have been double digit plunges in PayPal’s share price, so watch out for some significant volatility after the close with PayPal’s earnings due to be released.
Understanding Volatility Using Seasonax: Exxon’s Stop & Drop Seasonal
The strong seasonal trend in oil prices is well known amongst seasonal traders and, at first glance, it is quite interesting to see the contrasting seasonals of ExxonMobil which is one of the world's largest publicly traded international oil and gas companies. Initially it seems that it has a ‘stop & drop’ seasonal pattern.
The S&P500 Reaction To Fed Meetings Over The Last 5 Years
With so many uncertainties ahead of the Fed meeting it can be very helpful to see the reaction of the S&P500 over the last 5 years out of Fed meetings! The bias for heavier selling is clearly there, so this can help frame expectations on a surprise hawkish decision.
Microsoft Moves!
Microsoft announce their earnings this week after the close on Tuesday and the earnings are worth looking at closely. Over the last 25 years Microsoft’s seasonals are very weak during the upcoming period.
Is Copper Calling?
This week stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China saw snap gains on reports that the government might provide support. There are reports about a huge fund (worth about 2 trillion Chinese Yuan or around $278 billion) to stabilise the markets. This intervention was not unexpected as stock prices were getting close to the lowest point in 2022.
A Vision For Visa
Is the US economy bulletproof? That’s what the recent price action in US stock markets has been saying. With the US economy showing a strong jobs markets, decent GDP, a low unemployment rate, and inflation starting to fall - the idea of a soft landing could be replaced by a ‘no landing’!
Time To Buy Tesla Shares?
Over the last 13 years Tesla has seen an average return of 5% between the 22nd of Jan and the 5th of February. After the close on Wednesday Tesla’s earnings will be released. Will we see a surprise upside beat? In 2023 and 2020 Tesla’s share prices gained over 20%.
Perhaps Platinum?
Platinum is sitting at a very key support level, just as the seasonal pattern looks promising. The two strongest months of the year for Platinum are in January and February. From January 30th through to February 18 there is an average return of 2.55% for Platinum and a 75% winning trade percentage.
Is the Nasdaq Set To Fall Through February?
The Nasdaq has a weak seasonal time of the year into the middle of March over the last 25 years. Despite having a winning seasonal outlook form a percentage point of view - the average decline is nearly 1.5% from Jan 18th through to March 13
Seasonals Favour Heavier S&P 500 Selling Post The Fed
Today is the Federal Reserve’s hotly anticipated interest rate meeting. Expectations in short-term interest rate markets are for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times next year. Now this seems a very dovish expectation.