GBPUSD volatility expectations for Wednesday’s CPI print

On Wednesday, May 22, the UK CPI data will be released. This CPI print is in a major focus as investors want to know whether the Bank of England is winning the inflation battle. A surprise print to the upside or the downside is likely to send the GBP on a sharp move, but how much of a move can be expected?

This is where Seasonax’s event screener is so helpful. Over the last 5 years of CPI print we can see that the largest move, on the close, after 3 days has been 4.14% to the upside and 2.10% to the downside. The maximum gain has actually been as afar as 4.80% and the maximum fall 2.26%. There has also been a fair few moves of +1% or -1% during this period as well. So, if we do get a surprise print this can help set expectations of what targets may be realistic.

Giles Coghlan, CMT is a seasoned financial writer specialising in macro outlooks and key technical trading strategies

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The major trade risk here is that the CPI release is as expected and volatility is muted.

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