Watch for 2% plus swings on a surprise CPI print in the EURUSD

On Wednesday we have the US CPI print being released and it is a major focus for the Fed. In the last Fed meting, on May 01, the Fed confirmed that recent US inflation data had been disappointing. In the Press Conference Powell said, when asked about the prospect of 3 cuts this year, that the Fed needs more confidence on inflation and that the Fed did not see progress in Q1.

Will US CPI Print Send Gold 3% Higher?

Over the last 5 years gold has risen into and out of US CPI prints 60% of the time for an average 0.28% gain. Interestingly, the largest gain on a US CPI print in gold has been 3.11%. So, if we see a big miss in the US CPI print with the CPI MM 0.10% or lower, the Core CPI MM 0.10% or lower, the headline 3% or lower, and the CORE CPI 3.7% or lower then watch out for gold gains!


A major risk event is coming up for the US on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on Wednesday. Although US CPI data is unlikely to change the Fed’s mind for Wednesday it will certainly set the mood and tone.