The reasons for gold’s upside since the last FOMC meeting has been the falling USD and Real yields which provides a good lift for gold. As longs as investors continue to hold the view that the Fed will not need to hike rates aggressively into 2023 then gold should still be able gain. There are different ways to trade gold markets and one way is to trade a gold mining index instead of, or as well as, spot gold
Notice that the seasonals indicate that buying gold provides the strongest seasonal pattern, beating Direxion’s gold mining DUST and NUGT indexes. Between July 26 and August 28 gold rose a total of 8 times over the last 10 years with a 28.47% annualised return.
Major Trade Risks:
If inflation keeps edging higher then gold can fall lower again. Keep an eye on real yields and the USD to get a sense of gold’s direction.
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