Oil markets have been pushed and pulled around in recent days and weeks on the worries about supply with the Israel Hamas conflict and most recently on concerns regarding the collaboration of production levels within the OPEC+ group. The latest concern is Nigeria and Angola, having to accept a new baseline that reflects their actual production capabilities. This was the reason for the OPEC+ delay that was originally scheduled for this weekend and is now scheduled for November 30.
So what does the seasonals tell us about this time of year? Well, looking at the pattern we can see that WTI crude sees a period of weakness from this time of year until early December with falls over 50% of the time for an average drop of 3.84%. This is a week time of the year for oil, so if we don’t see production levels agreed will oil continue to slide lower in line with the seasonal outlook?
The major trade risk here will be from the OPEC+ production meeting. If Saudi Arabia increase their production cuts that could lift oil prices as the group try to address oil’s recent slides.
Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!