April has historically been a weak month for USD/CAD, with an average decline of -1.31% and gains in only 31.58% of cases. This seasonal trend could align with upcoming US tariff announcements, which may create volatility in the pair. If tariffs avoid major disruption to Canada and oil prices rise, CAD could strengthen further. However, strong US economic data or harsher-than-expected tariffs could challenge this pattern.
With UK inflation proving stickier than expected, the Bank of England remains hesitant to turn dovish. As the next CPI release nears, EUR/GBP has historically shown a tendency to decline, with GBP maintaining strength. This trend suggests that a higher-than-expected CPI could lead to continued GBP outperformance in the coming days.
The upcoming Fed meeting could weigh on USD/JPY, with historical data showing a bearish bias post-FOMC decisions. An average decline of -0.07% and a 48.75% win rate suggest downside risks, especially if the Fed signals more rate cuts. A dovish stance may push USD/JPY lower, while a hawkish surprise could provide support. Key technical levels, like the 147.50 support zone, will be crucial for traders.
EUR/USD has a strong seasonal track record from March 10 to March 17, with gains 75% of the time with an annualized return of +32.26%. Yield spreads and fiscal policies could further support the euro’s strength, while technical signals point to a potential breakout. However, key risks such as US inflation data and Fed policy shifts could introduce volatility.
Bitcoin’s seasonal pattern reveals potential risks. With the detrending feature in Seasonax, you can easily identify when Bitcoin is likely to experience declines, helping you minimize risks and optimize your investments.
The New Zealand dollar historically weakens against the US dollar from late February to mid-May, averaging a -2.21% move. With RBNZ's rate cuts and potential US tariffs fueling USD strength, NZD/USD could see further downside.
Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
Instrument: EURUSD Percent move of instrument: -10.07% Winning trade percentage: N/A Start of seasonal pattern: NFP release End of seasonal pattern: End of day on NFP release On Friday we have the US non-farm payroll is print and markets are looking for reasons to…
Early Friday morning the BoJ meet and speculation is rising on whether they will start to signal the end of negative interest rates. A weak yen is creating problems for the domestic markets and raising interest rates would be a quick way to strengthen the Yen.
On Thursday, the Bank of England meet and are still expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to tackle surging UK inflation.
