Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
Instrument: EURUSD Percent move of instrument: -10.07% Winning trade percentage: N/A Start of seasonal pattern: NFP release End of seasonal pattern: End of day on NFP release On Friday we have the US non-farm payroll is print and markets are looking for reasons to…
Early Friday morning the BoJ meet and speculation is rising on whether they will start to signal the end of negative interest rates. A weak yen is creating problems for the domestic markets and raising interest rates would be a quick way to strengthen the Yen.
On Thursday, the Bank of England meet and are still expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to tackle surging UK inflation.
Recent economic data from the UK has fuelled speculation that the Bank of England is starting to consider pausing interest rates hikes in the UK. Furthermore, some recent speeches from MPC members, have added fuel to this speculation. BoE’s Governor…
Heading into the ECB rate meeting on Thursday this week a Reuters poll from last week shows 39 out of 69 economists surveyed are expecting the European Central bank to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%. However 30 at the economists…
The Reserve Bank of Australia have moved into a wait-and-see mode before deciding on whether they need to hike interest rates further. At the latest central bank meeting they kept rates unchanged at 4.10% indicating that the July monthly CPI…
There is a very interesting seasonal pattern approaching in the GBPJPY pair. Recent gains in the pound are starting to look stretched. The Bank of England has been hiking interest rates to deal with rising inflation and that’s resulted in…
Recent UK data has shown signs of a sharp slowdown. On August 18 UK retail sales came in below market’s minimum expectations and so did the UK PMI reading on August 23. With GBP longs showing an extreme long position…
The rise in US Treasuries on thoughts the Fed may need to be more restrictive on rates has been nudging the USDJPY pair higher over August. Look at the relationship between US 10 year yields and the USDJPY overlay on…
