The United States is a Consumer Nation
Black Friday stocks by the numbers: the S&P 500 was up in 21 of 25 periods around the shopping day. See how Walmart, Costco and Macy’s did around Thanksgiving and which time windows matter.
Event Studies
Read MoreThe United States is a Consumer Nation
Stocks Love Midterms!
Stocks rise around the U.S. midterms: From five days before to two days after the election, the S&P 500 has risen in 22 out of 23 cases since 1934. View the charts and learn how to test this pattern yourself using Seasonax’s Event feature.
The Midterm Election Effect: Why the S&P 500 Often Moves Before the Votes Are Counted
The S&P 500 has historically started moving before midterm election results are even known. Seasonax data going back almost a century shows a seasonal window with an 87.50% win rate, and exactly when it starts to fade.
GBP/USD: CPI Miss Could Trigger Familiar Summer Slide
UK CPI data has historically pressured GBP/USD lower, especially when inflation prints fall short of expectations. Over the past 10 years, GBP/USD has shown an average drop of –0.03% on CPI days with a 47% win rate. With the BoE signaling a dovish stance, traders may respond quickly to any weak inflation surprise. This setup could once again lead to a familiar summer decline for sterling.
S&P 500: Can It Still Rally Out Of The US GDP Print Despite the IMF Downgrade?
Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.
UK Inflation Set to Drive GBP Strength Once More?
With UK inflation proving stickier than expected, the Bank of England remains hesitant to turn dovish. As the next CPI release nears, EUR/GBP has historically shown a tendency to decline, with GBP maintaining strength. This trend suggests that a higher-than-expected CPI could lead to continued GBP outperformance in the coming days.
Will the Fed Meeting Provide a Lifeline for USD/JPY?
The upcoming Fed meeting could weigh on USD/JPY, with historical data showing a bearish bias post-FOMC decisions. An average decline of -0.07% and a 48.75% win rate suggest downside risks, especially if the Fed signals more rate cuts. A dovish stance may push USD/JPY lower, while a hawkish surprise could provide support. Key technical levels, like the 147.50 support zone, will be crucial for traders.
Will the S&P 500 Rally Post-NFP in Line with History?
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown an upside bias after Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) releases, with an average return of +0.17% in the following 10 days. With Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts, this NFP report could be pivotal for market trends.
German Elections and the DAX: A Seasonal Opportunity?
Historically, the DAX has gained +1.72% in the 16 days following German elections, with an 80% success rate. As political uncertainty clears, market-friendly policies could fuel another rally. Will this election follow the trend?
Nasdaq’s Seasonal Strength Meets CPI Volatility
As the February 12 CPI release approaches, traders brace for volatility in the Nasdaq 100. With inflation expectations rising and Fed Chair Powell set to speak, the index faces a pivotal moment. However, historical seasonality tells a different story—showing an 87.69% annualized return and a 65% win rate around CPI events.
The US Election: Will Stock Prices Rise or Fall?
Elections will take place in the USA on November 5th. In the media you can read a lot about the candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Certainly the political side is very important. But for you, as an investor, it is also important to consider how the markets behave during the elections.