Silver typically shows strength from July 17 to July 31, delivering a 1.59% average return with a 64% win rate over the past 25 years. With hedge fund positioning stretched and open interest hitting critical highs, the market may be on the verge of a breakout.
Silver tends to perform strongly during the summer, and the historical data backs it up. From June 30 to September 1, silver (XAG/USD) has shown a consistent seasonal pattern of strength over the past 15 years, with a strong risk/reward profile. This seasonal trend, combined with a bullish technical setup, suggests potential upside toward $37–$38 if momentum holds.
Silver has recently enjoyed a strong rally, driven by safe-haven demand and momentum across the precious metals space. However, early June has historically marked a period of weakness for silver prices, with a notable negative seasonal pattern. Silver has shown an average move of -1.66% and just a 33% win rate over the past 15 years, in this period. Still, technical and macro factors suggest the dip could be temporary.
The outlook for the Federal Reserve is mixed. On one hand the US economy could be heading towards a recession next year. The November FOMC minutes stated that it was the ‘base case’. Slowing business activity, the cost of living,…
Recently we noted that silver prices had fallen over recent weeks on aggressive Fed hiking expectations and strong USD bids. This has led to notable selling pressure in both gold and silver. The expectations for earlier this week was that…
Silver prices have fallen over recent weeks on aggressive Fed hiking expectations and strong USD bids. This has led to notable selling pressure in both gold and silver. This week on Tuesday economists are predicting that US inflation will fall…
The gold/silver ratio is a helpful tool for assessing when it may be better to be in gold or silver positions. Over the last few months the ratio has been steadily rising as it makes it way up to 100.…
PDF Download (GERMAN) Dear Investor, Four weeks ago, in the issue of Seasonal Insights, I brought you an analysis on the seasonality of gold. Today I want to take a closer look at another popular precious metal: silver. Silver, often…
Silver and gold typically have a strong seasonal pattern around the summer months of July and August. This is in part due to jewellery stock purchases ahead of Christmas and buyers for the Indian wedding season. One of the other…
Last Friday markets were shocked with the latest inflation print showing that inflation in the US was continuing to track even higher. Investors are now growing more and more concerned that inflation may be here to stay like it did…
