Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.
On Friday the latest jobs data will be released for the US and it will be in major focus. Remember, the Fed has a twin mandate: to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable. So, with inflation moving in the right direction with the latest PCE print.
The Federal Reserve is meeting this week on Wednesday and from a seasonal bias the S&P 500 tends to gain heading into that event. Expectations are increasing that the Federal Reserve will signal peak interest rates so could this mean an increase in US stock prices from here on in?
The Federal Reserve is focusing very intently on the US labour market for signs that their rate hiking cycle is starting to cool demand. The way the market has been translation US economic data over the last few weeks is…
There is longstanding Wall St. saying which says to, ‘Sell in May, and Go Away’. This is because summer has a reputation for being a weak time for US stocks. So, does that mean a summer slide is ahead for…
Morgan Stanley expect a sharp contraction in corporate earnings to weigh on US equities this year and they see the S&P500 lower at 3,900 by year end. However, Goldman Sachs are expecting mild growth from the S&P500 this year. So,…
Going into this Fed interest rate meeting market expectations are that the Fed will hike by 25bps. Short term interest rate markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps hike to 5.125%. However, the forward guidance is going…
There is a big question in markets right now about whether or not the Fed futures rate curve is a fair reflection of what it to come for the US. Are investors too complacent about a retreat from US peak…
The US Midterm elections have a very strong seasonal pattern that you need to be aware of. Since 1950 the US midterms have resulted in gains 83% of the time between November 20 and December 30, Now, if you extend…
The marquee event of this week is the US CPI event on Thursday. Traders will be looking at this data closely for how fast the Federal Reserve will be hiking interest rates. The best opportunity would likely come from a…
