The US election influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial. In the current post-election year, seasonals suggest a stronger upcoming seasonal decline.
Apple’s strong seasonal window from August to September has historically delivered an average return of +5.03% with a 72% win rate. This year, the bullish trend meets key macro events like earnings, tariff risks, and major leadership changes. A breakout could align technicals with seasonal strength.
Intel has a troubling track record from late July to late August, averaging a –8.51% return over the last 15 years with only a 33% win rate. Despite recent restructuring headlines lifting the stock, history suggests caution. With earnings due on July 24, the stage is set for a possible seasonal selloff. Guidance clarity and AI progress will be key.
Tesla shares are entering a historically weak period, averaging a –2.06% return between 23 July and 1 August over the past decade. Only 22% of trades were winners in this window. With earnings approaching and macro pressures mounting, seasonal headwinds could compound downside risk. Weak deliveries and market share erosion add to the bearish setup.
Hydrogen technology offers a promising future, and Linde plc is at the forefront of this transition. With its strong seasonal patterns and a long-term upward trend, Linde presents attractive opportunities for short-term trades and long-term investments alike.
H2O America enters one of its strongest seasonal periods with a +1.63% average gain from July 14 to July 26, based on historical data. A potential $540 million water utility acquisition in Texas could catalyze a breakout. Seasonal momentum and deal speculation may align to break the long-standing downtrend.
Oracle’s stock may have just hit all-time highs on the back of a $30 billion cloud deal, but a historical pattern suggests caution. Between July and August, shares have dropped in 11 out of the last 15 years, with an average move of –2.06%. Could this seasonal dip present a rare buying opportunity for long-term bulls?
Royal Dutch Shell enters its weakest seasonal window with a historical average decline of –8.43%. This phase coincides with growing questions around the company’s long-term strategy and potential M&A activity. Despite modest outperformance year-to-date, Shell’s limited organic growth and strategic ambiguity may weigh on investor sentiment.
Crédit Agricole is entering one of its most statistically favorable periods of the year. The French banking giant has a strong track record of positive performance during this time, just as European equities regain investor interest. With support from macro tailwinds and technical strength, this seasonal window could offer an attractive opportunity for traders and investors alike.
Babcock International has outpaced every other FTSE 100 stock this year, with shares surging over 130%. Now entering a historically strong period, the defence giant could climb even further. With a win rate of 66.67% between June and August, both seasonal and technical indicators suggest more upside ahead.
Amgen shows a historically strong seasonal pattern from June 30 to September 1, with a win rate of 76% over the past 25 years. The biotech giant is also advancing in the anti-obesity space, with its MariTide treatment in late-stage trials. Investors may see added upside potential as healthcare stocks gain favor in uncertain economic times.
