On Wednesday the Federal Reserve meet and STIR markets currently see around a 1 in 4 chance that they will hike by 25bps.
A key part of the Fed meeting will be their messaging. Will they, like the BoC and RBA last week, take a more hawkish stance? If they do that will likely send yields higher and the USD higher which should weaken gold prices.
The seasonals favour weakness for gold too. Over the last 15 years old has fallen on average 60% of the time between June 14 and July 02 for an average fall of -0.58%.
Will a hawkish Fed send gold lower again in line with its seasonals?
Major Trade Risks:
The biggest risk here is to do with the Fed messaging and US CPI on Tuesday at 1330 UK time. A big miss in the CPI print and/or a dovish Fed is likely to support gold higher in the near term.
Remember, don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!