FED

The S&P500 Reaction To Fed Meetings Over The Last 5 Years

With so many uncertainties ahead of the Fed meeting it can be very helpful to see the reaction of the S&P500 over the last 5 years out of Fed meetings! The bias for heavier selling is clearly there, so this can help frame expectations on a surprise hawkish decision.

January 31, 2024
FED S&P 500

Has the Dollar Bull Run Come To An End?

A series of interest rate hikes from the Federal reserve has kept the dollar bid continually this year. Inflation fears have been the driver of these rate hikes and the dollar long position is showing extreme stretch position in the…

November 2, 2023
FED usd

Is this time for a US stock turnaround?

A hawkish Federal Reserve and expectations of increasing interest rates have kept major stocks pressured over the month of September. The higher rates for longer narrative from the latest Fed meeting has helped push up yields and US interest rate expectations which is naturally more challenging conditions for US companies.

October 3, 2023
FED Indices US

Will gold climb out of the Fed meeting?

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting will also be a meeting where the Fed outline their dot plot on rate projections.

September 18, 2023
commodities Event Studies FED Gold

Can a hawkish Fed send gold down to $1900?

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve meet and STIR markets currently see around a 1 in 4 chance that they will hike by 25bps. A key part of the Fed meeting will be their messaging. Will they, like the BoC and…

June 13, 2023
commodities FED Gold

Procter & Gamble: A good defensive play for the Fed?

Procter & Gamble (P&G) is widely regarded as a defensive stock. Defensive stocks are those that tend to perform relatively well during economic downturns or recessions. These companies typically offer essential products or services that maintain consistent demand even in…

June 13, 2023
DefensiveStock FED

What will the S&P500 do when the Fed hikes?

Going into this Fed interest rate meeting market expectations are that the Fed will hike by 25bps. Short term interest rate markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps hike to 5.125%. However, the forward guidance is going…

May 2, 2023
FED Interest Rate s&p500

Summer slide for stocks ahead?

The Fed meets on May 03 and there is an increasingly bearish attitude to stocks and the prospects of further gains in stocks are viewed nervously. Despite these bearish projections April has been a strong month for some of the…

April 20, 2023
Bearish FED

Event study: How do key interest rate hikes affect stock prices?

Have you ever wondered how stock or commodity prices will behave when futures contracts expire, and when labor market or inflation numbers are published, or when the Fed meets for its FOMC meeting?

January 11, 2023
EventStudies FED FOMC Seasonality

USD softness into year end!

Another really notable trend around this time of the year is USD weakness. This is due to some taxation reasons that regularly sees USD flows out of parent US companies into daughter companies around year end. So, the USD does…

December 23, 2022
FED usd