Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
His clear, actionable outlooks are trusted by traders worldwide and featured in Reuters, WSJ, Business Insider, FT Adviser, NBC, and more.
Stay ahead with insights that cut through the noise – from one of the industry’s most respected analysts.
The Federal Reserve is meeting this week on Wednesday and from a seasonal bias the S&P 500 tends to gain heading into that event. Expectations are increasing that the Federal Reserve will signal peak interest rates so could this mean an increase in US stock prices from here on in?
The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has been providing a boost for oil prices on speculative flows. The risk of a wider conflict could threaten the oil supply to the world and that has been the reason for sudden buyers to step into the oil market pushing prices higher.
Meta earnings are due out after the close on Wednesday and their seasonal bias into month end has a distinctly dour outlook. From the start of the year Meta has gained over 150% and it’s return has only fallen behind…
Short-term interest rate markets currently see a 100% chance of the ECB keeping rates unchanged On October the 26th meeting. The terminal rate is seen as being around the current level of 4%. The question is will the ECB recognise…
The 150 region on the USDJPY has seen intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance in the recent past. Remember that the move higher in US yields, recently supported by a strong US retail sales print, also supports the dollar yen.
Teslas earnings are due out after Wednesday's close and there are a number of factors to consider. Teslas market share is around 20% of the global EV market at second, only to the Chinese manufacturer, BYD.
There are some mixed messages for Soybean markets with a bumper crop from Brazil, but high temperatures over the US Summer have been impacting expectations for the US’s crop grade and concerns that China’s consumer habits may be changing too have weighed on sentiment.
The latest PPI data this week out of the US was hot and the US CPI yesterday was mildly firmer than markets were expecting. However, recent more dovish Fed rhetoric has increased expectations of the Fed reaching peak rates.
Over the last few days, markets have been confronted by a confused message. On the one hand, the Feds recent messaging has become more dovish indicating that the recent surge in yields could mean the federal reserve doesn’t need to hike in November. However, on the other hand, the PPI print on Wednesday surprised significantly to the upside indicating the Fed had more work to do.
The latest CFTC report shows that traders are stretched to the long side on the USD. When you can see stretched positioning it means that there is a vulnerability for a sharp correction if there is any reasons for USD selling.
US CPI is expected to pull back to 3.6% from August’s print of 3.7% and the core is expected to fall for the sixth month in a row down to 4.1% from the prior reading of 4.3%. This should keep yields and the USD mildly pressured.
