US CPI is expected to pull back to 3.6% from August’s print of 3.7% and the core is expected to fall for the sixth month in a row down to 4.1% from the prior reading of 4.3%. This should keep yields and the USD mildly pressured. However, at the moment, due to the unexpected attacks by Hamas on Israel there is a flight to safety into global bonds and into gold. So, that’s why gold’s seasonal pattern is very interesting heading into the US CPI event.
Over the last 10 years, in the 3 days prior to the US CPI print, gold has gained 57.50% of the time. So, with gold’s bias for gains – will we see more gold upside heading into the US CPI print on Thursday?
Major Trade Risks:
The major trade risks here is that yields rise on higher US interest rate fears and the USD gains too pushing real yields higher.
Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!